Opinion Poll by Indikator for Sveriges Radio, 11–25 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 35.4% 34.5–36.4% 34.2–36.6% 34.0–36.9% 33.6–37.3%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.4% 20.6–22.2% 20.4–22.5% 20.2–22.7% 19.8–23.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.9% 18.2–19.7% 17.9–19.9% 17.8–20.1% 17.4–20.5%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.5% 7.0–8.0% 6.9–8.2% 6.7–8.3% 6.5–8.6%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.3% 4.9–5.8% 4.8–5.9% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.2%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.7% 4.3–5.1% 4.2–5.3% 4.1–5.4% 3.9–5.6%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.6–4.3% 3.4–4.4% 3.4–4.5% 3.2–4.7%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.2–1.7% 1.1–1.7% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 21% 100%  
8 79% 79% Median
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 14% 100%  
5 86% 86% Median
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.1% 100% Median
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 98.7% 98.7% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 40% 40%  
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 59% 100% Median
5 41% 41%  
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 14% 100%  
5 86% 86% Median
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 98.7% 98.7% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations