Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 16–26 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.1% 31.8–34.4% 31.4–34.8% 31.1–35.1% 30.5–35.8%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.8% 19.7–22.0% 19.4–22.3% 19.1–22.6% 18.6–23.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.8% 16.8–18.9% 16.5–19.2% 16.2–19.5% 15.8–20.0%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.4% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–9.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.1% 5.5–6.8% 5.3–7.0% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.6%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 5.4% 4.8–6.1% 4.6–6.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.2–6.8%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.5% 4.0–5.1% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.8%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.2–3.1% 2.1–3.2% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 3–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 69% 99.9% Median
8 31% 31%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 25% 100%  
5 75% 75% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 98% 99.2% Median
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 91% 91% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 86% 100% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 99.9% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 89% 89% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.9% 100%  
5 97% 99.1% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 25% 100%  
5 75% 75% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 86% 100% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 91% 91% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 89% 89% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations