Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 26 January–8 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 34.4% 33.3–35.5% 33.0–35.8% 32.8–36.0% 32.3–36.6%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.1% 19.2–21.0% 19.0–21.3% 18.7–21.5% 18.3–22.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.2% 17.3–19.1% 17.1–19.4% 16.9–19.6% 16.5–20.0%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.4% 6.8–8.0% 6.7–8.2% 6.6–8.4% 6.3–8.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 5.6% 5.1–6.2% 5.0–6.3% 4.9–6.5% 4.6–6.7%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 4.6% 4.1–5.1% 4.0–5.2% 3.9–5.4% 3.7–5.6%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.3% 1.6–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.4–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 28% 100%  
8 72% 72% Median
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 65% 100% Median
5 35% 35%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 99.4% 99.9% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.6% 100% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 5–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–1 0–1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 99.1% 99.9% Median
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 65% 100% Median
5 35% 35%  
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations