Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 23 February–8 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 32.4% 31.3–33.5% 31.0–33.8% 30.8–34.0% 30.3–34.6%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 21.1% 20.2–22.1% 20.0–22.3% 19.7–22.6% 19.3–23.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.0% 16.2–17.9% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.3% 15.3–18.8%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.7% 7.1–8.3% 7.0–8.5% 6.8–8.7% 6.6–9.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.5% 6.0–7.1% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.4% 5.5–7.7%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.9% 5.4–6.5% 5.2–6.6% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.0%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.6–6.1% 4.4–6.4%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.8–2.5% 1.7–2.6% 1.7–2.7% 1.5–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7 7 7–8 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 95% 99.5% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 16% 100%  
5 84% 84% Median
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 95% 95% Median
5 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 81% 100% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98.8% 100% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 95% 95% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 16% 100%  
5 84% 84% Median
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 81% 100% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98.8% 100% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations