Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 10–27 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.2% 32.1–34.4% 31.7–34.7% 31.5–35.0% 30.9–35.6%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.9% 18.9–20.9% 18.6–21.2% 18.4–21.4% 18.0–21.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 16.5% 15.6–17.5% 15.4–17.7% 15.2–18.0% 14.7–18.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.2% 6.6–7.9% 6.4–8.1% 6.3–8.2% 6.0–8.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.1% 6.5–7.8% 6.3–8.0% 6.2–8.2% 5.9–8.5%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.9% 5.3–6.5% 5.2–6.7% 5.1–6.8% 4.8–7.2%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.3–5.4% 4.2–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 3.8–6.0%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.4% 100%  
7 84% 99.6% Median
8 15% 15%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 81% 100% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 31% 100%  
4 69% 69% Median
5 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 73% 73% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 30% 100%  
2 70% 70% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 98.6% 98.6% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 53% 53% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 32% 99.9%  
5 68% 68% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 81% 100% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 45% 100%  
2 54% 55% Median
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 73% 73% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 30% 100%  
2 70% 70% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations