Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 27 April–10 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 32.5% 31.4–33.6% 31.1–33.9% 30.8–34.2% 30.3–34.7%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.9% 18.0–19.8% 17.7–20.1% 17.5–20.3% 17.1–20.8%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.2% 16.3–18.1% 16.1–18.4% 15.9–18.6% 15.5–19.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.9% 7.3–8.6% 7.1–8.7% 7.0–8.9% 6.7–9.3%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.9% 7.3–8.6% 7.1–8.7% 7.0–8.9% 6.7–9.3%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 5.5% 5.0–6.1% 4.9–6.3% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.7%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.6–5.7% 4.5–5.8% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.2%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7 7 7 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 3–4
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 98% 99.9% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.2% 100% Median
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.5% 100%  
4 98.5% 98.5% Median
5 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 99.4% 99.4% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 98% 98% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.2% 100% Median
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 99.4% 99.4% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations