Opinion Poll by Novus for Göteborgs-Posten and TV4, 4–17 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 30.9% 30.1–31.7% 29.9–31.9% 29.7–32.1% 29.3–32.5%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.2% 18.5–19.9% 18.3–20.1% 18.2–20.3% 17.9–20.6%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.2% 17.5–18.9% 17.4–19.1% 17.2–19.3% 16.9–19.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.8% 8.3–9.3% 8.2–9.4% 8.1–9.6% 7.8–9.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.1% 6.7–7.6% 6.5–7.7% 6.4–7.8% 6.2–8.0%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.6–6.4% 5.5–6.6% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 5.6% 5.2–6.0% 5.1–6.2% 5.0–6.2% 4.8–6.5%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.7% 2.1–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7 7 7 7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.3% 100%  
7 99.4% 99.7% Median
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 97% 100% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.8% 100% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 100% 100% Median

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.0% 100% Median
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4–5 4–5
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 99.7% 100% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 97% 100% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 100% 100% Median

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.0% 100% Median
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations