Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 10–24 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 31.9% 30.8–33.1% 30.5–33.4% 30.2–33.7% 29.6–34.3%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.0% 18.0–20.0% 17.8–20.3% 17.6–20.5% 17.1–21.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 16.7% 15.8–17.6% 15.5–17.9% 15.3–18.2% 14.9–18.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.1% 7.5–8.8% 7.3–9.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.6% 7.0–8.3% 6.8–8.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.4–9.0%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 5.7% 5.2–6.3% 5.0–6.5% 4.9–6.6% 4.6–7.0%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.7–3.6% 2.6–3.7% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7 7 7–8 6–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.8% 100%  
7 97% 99.2% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 96% 100% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 93% 93% Median
5 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 99.7% 99.7% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 100% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4–5 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 93% 93% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 96% 100% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 99.7% 99.7% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations