Opinion Poll by SCB, 28 April–28 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 33.9% 33.3–34.5% 33.1–34.7% 32.9–34.9% 32.6–35.2%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.3% 17.8–18.8% 17.6–19.0% 17.5–19.1% 17.3–19.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.3% 16.8–17.8% 16.7–18.0% 16.5–18.1% 16.3–18.3%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.6% 8.2–9.0% 8.1–9.1% 8.0–9.2% 7.9–9.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.6% 6.3–7.0% 6.2–7.0% 6.1–7.1% 6.0–7.3%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 6.1% 5.8–6.4% 5.7–6.5% 5.6–6.6% 5.5–6.8%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 4.2–4.8% 4.2–4.9% 4.1–5.0% 4.0–5.1%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.3–2.7% 2.2–2.8% 2.2–2.9% 2.1–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 28% 100%  
8 72% 72% Median
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 100% 100% Median

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 100% 100% Median

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 100% 100% Median

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 72% 100% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 100% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 99.4% Median
2 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.6% 100%  
5 99.4% 99.4% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 100% 100% Median

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 100% 100% Median

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 72% 100% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 100% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations