Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 5–17 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 31.3% 30.0–32.6% 29.6–33.0% 29.3–33.4% 28.7–34.0%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.4% 18.3–20.6% 18.0–20.9% 17.7–21.2% 17.2–21.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 16.3% 15.3–17.4% 15.0–17.7% 14.8–18.0% 14.3–18.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.6% 6.9–8.4% 6.7–8.6% 6.5–8.8% 6.2–9.2%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.6% 6.9–8.4% 6.7–8.6% 6.5–8.8% 6.2–9.2%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 6.2% 5.6–7.0% 5.4–7.2% 5.2–7.3% 4.9–7.7%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.4% 2.3–3.6% 2.2–3.7% 2.0–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 9% 100%  
7 89% 91% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 87% 100% Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 31% 100%  
4 69% 69% Median
5 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 74% 100% Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 87% 100% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 15% 100%  
5 75% 85% Median
6 10% 10%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 87% 100% Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 86% 100% Median
2 13% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations