Opinion Poll by Novus for Göteborgs-Posten and TV4, 3–16 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 30.1% 29.3–30.9% 29.1–31.1% 28.9–31.3% 28.5–31.7%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.1% 18.4–19.8% 18.2–20.0% 18.1–20.2% 17.8–20.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.3% 17.6–19.0% 17.5–19.2% 17.3–19.3% 17.0–19.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.9% 7.5–8.4% 7.3–8.5% 7.2–8.6% 7.0–8.9%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.4% 7.0–7.9% 6.8–8.0% 6.7–8.1% 6.5–8.4%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 7.1% 6.7–7.6% 6.6–7.7% 6.4–7.8% 6.3–8.0%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 6.3% 5.9–6.7% 5.8–6.9% 5.7–7.0% 5.5–7.2%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.7–2.2% 1.6–2.2% 1.6–2.3% 1.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 64% 100% Median
7 36% 36%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.7% 100% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 100% 100% Median

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 28% 100%  
2 72% 72% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 5–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 98% 100% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.7% 100% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 28% 100%  
2 72% 72% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations