Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 3–16 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 30.5% 29.4–31.6% 29.1–31.9% 28.9–32.1% 28.3–32.6%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.5% 17.6–19.4% 17.3–19.7% 17.1–19.9% 16.7–20.3%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.3% 16.4–18.2% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.1%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.7% 7.1–8.4% 6.9–8.5% 6.8–8.7% 6.5–9.0%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.7% 7.1–8.4% 6.9–8.5% 6.8–8.7% 6.5–9.0%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 6.2% 5.6–6.8% 5.5–7.0% 5.4–7.1% 5.1–7.4%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.3% 1.5–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.3–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 3–4
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 68% 100% Median
7 32% 32%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 99.2% 99.3% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 14% 100%  
4 86% 86% Median
5 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 91% 91% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 3–4
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 86% 87% Median
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 99.2% 99.3% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 91% 91% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations