Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 13–24 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 30.4% 29.2–31.7% 28.8–32.1% 28.5–32.4% 27.9–33.1%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.3% 17.2–19.4% 16.9–19.7% 16.7–20.0% 16.2–20.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.2% 16.2–18.3% 15.9–18.6% 15.6–18.9% 15.2–19.4%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 8.5% 7.8–9.3% 7.6–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 7.7% 7.0–8.5% 6.8–8.7% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.3%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 6.0–7.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.5–8.3%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 6.0–7.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.5–8.3%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 3–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 48% 100%  
7 52% 52% Median
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 98% 98.6% Median
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 19% 100%  
4 81% 81% Median
5 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 99.7% 99.7% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 62% 100% Median
2 38% 38%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 60% 100% Median
2 40% 40%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 3–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 19% 100%  
6 81% 81% Median
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 98% 98.6% Median
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 62% 100% Median
2 38% 38%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 60% 100% Median
2 40% 40%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations