Opinion Poll by Novus for Göteborgs-Posten and TV4, 24–30 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 25.8% 24.8–26.9% 24.5–27.2% 24.3–27.4% 23.8–27.9%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.7% 19.8–21.7% 19.5–22.0% 19.3–22.2% 18.9–22.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 17.2% 16.3–18.1% 16.1–18.4% 15.9–18.6% 15.5–19.0%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.4% 7.8–9.1% 7.6–9.3% 7.5–9.5% 7.2–9.8%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.7–9.0% 7.5–9.2% 7.4–9.4% 7.1–9.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.8% 7.2–8.5% 7.0–8.7% 6.9–8.8% 6.6–9.2%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.9–7.1% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.4–7.8%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.7% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.5–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 37% 100%  
6 63% 63% Median
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 66% 100% Median
5 34% 34%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 9% 100%  
4 91% 91% Median
5 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.8% 99.8% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 86% 100% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2–3
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 83% 94% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 66% 100% Median
5 34% 34%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 98% 99.7% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.8% 99.8% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations