Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet, 25 August–1 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 27.2% 25.9–28.5% 25.6–28.9% 25.3–29.2% 24.7–29.8%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.6% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 16.6% 15.6–17.7% 15.3–18.0% 15.0–18.3% 14.6–18.9%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.8–9.5% 7.6–9.7% 7.5–9.9% 7.1–10.3%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.5%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.4–3.3% 2.3–3.5% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 11% 100%  
6 89% 89% Median
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 85% 100% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 37% 100%  
4 63% 63% Median
5 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 56% 100% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 42% 99.3%  
6 58% 58% Median
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 85% 100% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.4% 99.6% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 56% 100% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations