Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 20 August–2 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 29.2% 28.1–30.3% 27.8–30.5% 27.6–30.8% 27.1–31.3%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.9% 18.0–19.8% 17.7–20.1% 17.5–20.3% 17.1–20.8%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 16.4% 15.6–17.3% 15.3–17.5% 15.1–17.8% 14.7–18.2%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.1% 7.5–8.7% 7.3–8.9% 7.2–9.1% 6.9–9.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 7.4% 6.8–8.0% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.2–8.7%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 6.3% 5.8–6.9% 5.6–7.1% 5.5–7.2% 5.2–7.5%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 78% 100% Median
7 22% 22%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 98% 100% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 22% 100%  
4 78% 78% Median
5 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.8% 100%  
2 99.2% 99.2% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 91% 100% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4–5
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 16% 100%  
5 81% 84% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 98% 100% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.8% 100%  
2 99.2% 99.2% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations