Opinion Poll by Novus for Göteborgs-Posten and TV4, 6–8 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 26.6% 25.5–27.8% 25.1–28.2% 24.8–28.5% 24.3–29.1%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.3% 18.3–20.4% 18.0–20.7% 17.7–21.0% 17.2–21.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 16.6% 15.6–17.6% 15.3–17.9% 15.1–18.2% 14.7–18.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.8% 8.1–9.6% 7.9–9.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.5%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 7.8% 7.1–8.6% 6.9–8.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.4%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 6.4% 5.8–7.1% 5.6–7.3% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 5.8% 5.2–6.5% 5.0–6.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 30% 100%  
6 70% 70% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 98% 99.8% Median
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 51% 100% Median
4 49% 49%  
5 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 99.9% 99.9% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 89% 89% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 91% 100% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 100% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 44% 100% Median
5 54% 56%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 98% 99.8% Median
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 11% 100%  
3 88% 89% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 99.9% 99.9% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations