Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 4–10 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 27.6% 26.5–28.6% 26.2–28.9% 26.0–29.2% 25.5–29.7%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.1% 17.2–19.0% 16.9–19.3% 16.7–19.5% 16.3–19.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 15.8% 15.0–16.7% 14.7–16.9% 14.5–17.2% 14.1–17.6%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 8.2% 7.6–8.9% 7.4–9.1% 7.3–9.2% 7.0–9.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.7% 7.1–8.4% 6.9–8.6% 6.8–8.7% 6.5–9.0%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.9–7.1% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.4–7.8%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 5.5% 5.0–6.1% 4.8–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 6 6 5–6 5–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 3–4
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 95% 95% Median
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 98% 98% Median
5 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 91% 100% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.8% 100%  
2 99.2% 99.2% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 93% 93% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 3–4
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 2–3
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 84% 100% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 98% 98% Median
5 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 99.1% 99.2% Median
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 93% 93% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations