Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Aftonbladet and Expressen, 7–11 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 29.7% 28.1–31.3% 27.7–31.7% 27.3–32.1% 26.6–32.9%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.0% 17.7–20.4% 17.4–20.8% 17.1–21.2% 16.5–21.8%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 16.7% 15.5–18.0% 15.1–18.4% 14.8–18.7% 14.3–19.4%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 7.7% 6.8–8.7% 6.6–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.0–9.7%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 7.6% 6.8–8.6% 6.5–8.9% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.6%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.5% 6.6–8.4% 6.4–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 5.8–9.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.4% 4.6–6.7% 4.5–6.9% 4.2–7.3%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.0% 3.4–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4–5 3–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.0% 100%  
6 73% 99.0% Median
7 26% 26%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 94% 98% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 50% 100% Median
4 50% 50%  
5 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 83% 83% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 24% 100%  
2 76% 76% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 73% 73% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.8% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4–5 3–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 8% 100%  
5 58% 92% Median
6 34% 34%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 94% 98% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 100%  
2 25% 99.0%  
3 74% 75% Median
4 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 73% 73% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.8% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations