Opinion Poll by Novus for Göteborgs-Posten and TV4, 9–11 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 28.6% 26.9–30.4% 26.4–30.9% 26.0–31.4% 25.2–32.2%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 19.5% 18.0–21.1% 17.6–21.6% 17.3–21.9% 16.6–22.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 18.1% 16.7–19.7% 16.3–20.1% 16.0–20.5% 15.3–21.3%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 9.2% 8.2–10.4% 7.9–10.8% 7.6–11.1% 7.1–11.7%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.6% 5.4–7.9% 5.2–8.2% 4.8–8.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.1–8.0% 4.7–8.5%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.7% 4.3–7.0% 3.9–7.5%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 4 4 4 3–5 3–5
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 76% 98% Median
7 22% 22%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 77% 99.6% Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 92% 96% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 98% 99.8% Median
3 1.4% 1.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 65% 100% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 70% 100% Median
2 30% 30%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 96% 99.2% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 90% 90% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5–6 4–6 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 89% 96% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 77% 99.6% Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 89% 90% Median
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 70% 100% Median
2 30% 30%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 65% 100% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations