Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 15–27 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 28.0% 26.6–29.4% 26.2–29.8% 25.9–30.2% 25.2–30.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 22.0% 20.8–23.4% 20.4–23.7% 20.1–24.1% 19.5–24.7%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 17.0% 15.9–18.2% 15.5–18.6% 15.3–18.9% 14.8–19.5%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.5–9.9%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 6.3–7.9% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.7%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.7%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 6 6–7 5–7 5–7
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 89% 97% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 14% 100%  
5 85% 86% Median
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 18% 100%  
4 82% 82% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 42% 100%  
2 58% 58% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 58% 58% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 12% 100%  
6 82% 88% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 18% 100%  
4 82% 82% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 62% 89%  
3 27% 27% Median
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations