Opinion Poll by Novus for TV4, 5–11 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 25.9% 24.8–27.1% 24.5–27.4% 24.2–27.7% 23.7–28.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 23.9% 22.8–25.0% 22.5–25.3% 22.3–25.6% 21.7–26.1%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 18.0% 17.0–19.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.0%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.2% 6.6–7.9% 6.4–8.1% 6.2–8.3% 6.0–8.6%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 6.7% 6.1–7.4% 5.9–7.6% 5.8–7.7% 5.5–8.1%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.5% 5.9–7.2% 5.7–7.4% 5.6–7.5% 5.3–7.9%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 6.4% 5.8–7.1% 5.7–7.3% 5.5–7.4% 5.2–7.8%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.4–4.5% 3.3–4.6% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 3–4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 29% 100%  
6 71% 71% Median
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 88% 99.8% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 98% 98% Median
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 67% 67% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 40% 100%  
2 60% 60% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 76% 100% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 82% 100% Median
2 18% 18%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result, Median
1 50% 50%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 3–4
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 2 0% 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 71% 99.9% Median
7 28% 29%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 98% 98% Median
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 25% 100%  
2 40% 75% Median
3 35% 35%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 76% 100% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 67% 67% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations