Opinion Poll by Verian for SVT, 28 September–11 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0.0% 28.5% 27.5–29.6% 27.2–29.9% 26.9–30.1% 26.4–30.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0.0% 22.3% 21.3–23.3% 21.1–23.6% 20.8–23.8% 20.4–24.3%
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0.0% 17.2% 16.3–18.1% 16.1–18.4% 15.9–18.6% 15.5–19.0%
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.8% 7.2–8.5% 7.0–8.7% 6.9–8.8% 6.6–9.1%
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.1% 6.5–7.7% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.4%
Centerpartiet (RE) 0.0% 6.3% 5.8–6.9% 5.6–7.1% 5.5–7.2% 5.2–7.5%
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0.0% 5.9% 5.4–6.5% 5.2–6.7% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.1%
Liberalerna (RE) 0.0% 3.7% 3.3–4.2% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) 0 5 5 5 4–5 4–5
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Centerpartiet (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Liberalerna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 89% 99.7% Median
7 11% 11%  
8 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 96% 96% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 92% 92% Median
5 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 30% 100%  
2 70% 70% Median
3 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalerna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 25%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP) 0 6 0% 6 6 5–6 5–7
Sverigedemokraterna (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2

Moderata samlingspartiet (EPP) – Kristdemokraterna (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 94% 96% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 92% 92% Median
5 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet (RE) – Liberalerna (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 68% 100% Median
2 31% 32%  
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 30% 100%  
2 70% 70% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations