Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 29 May–6 June 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.5–28.1% | 23.1–28.5% | 22.3–29.4% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 19.8% | 18.2–21.5% | 17.8–22.0% | 17.4–22.4% | 16.7–23.2% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 18.9% | 17.4–20.6% | 16.9–21.0% | 16.6–21.5% | 15.9–22.3% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| Les Engagés | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.2–11.6% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.6–12.3% | 8.0–13.0% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 22 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–27 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 18 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 | 7–13 |
| Les Engagés | 10 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 21 | 17% | 94% | |
| 22 | 40% | 76% | Median |
| 23 | 23% | 36% | Last Result |
| 24 | 9% | 13% | |
| 25 | 2% | 4% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 8% | 95% | |
| 16 | 10% | 86% | |
| 17 | 15% | 77% | |
| 18 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 19 | 34% | 42% | |
| 20 | 7% | 8% | Last Result |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 16% | 95% | |
| 16 | 15% | 79% | |
| 17 | 56% | 64% | Median |
| 18 | 5% | 8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 4% | 97% | |
| 9 | 6% | 93% | |
| 10 | 31% | 86% | |
| 11 | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 12 | 32% | 35% | Last Result |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 15% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 32% | 84% | |
| 8 | 26% | 52% | Median |
| 9 | 12% | 26% | |
| 10 | 10% | 14% | Last Result |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 51 | 100% | 48–53 | 48–53 | 47–54 | 46–54 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 49 | 100% | 48–51 | 47–52 | 46–53 | 45–54 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés | 43 | 46 | 100% | 44–49 | 44–49 | 44–50 | 43–51 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés | 45 | 40 | 98% | 39–43 | 38–44 | 38–44 | 37–45 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 40 | 89% | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–43 | 36–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 39 | 88% | 37–40 | 37–41 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés | 42 | 36 | 12% | 34–38 | 34–38 | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 33 | 0.5% | 31–35 | 30–36 | 30–36 | 28–38 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 33 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 27–33 | 27–33 | 26–35 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 29 | 0% | 26–31 | 26–31 | 25–31 | 24–32 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 22–30 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 30 | 26 | 0% | 23–27 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 21–30 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 48 | 8% | 97% | |
| 49 | 12% | 89% | |
| 50 | 22% | 77% | |
| 51 | 25% | 56% | Median |
| 52 | 17% | 31% | |
| 53 | 10% | 13% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 46 | 3% | 98% | |
| 47 | 5% | 96% | |
| 48 | 11% | 90% | |
| 49 | 31% | 79% | |
| 50 | 29% | 48% | Median |
| 51 | 10% | 20% | |
| 52 | 7% | 10% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 44 | 10% | 98% | |
| 45 | 16% | 88% | |
| 46 | 24% | 72% | |
| 47 | 18% | 48% | Median |
| 48 | 15% | 30% | |
| 49 | 11% | 15% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98% | Majority |
| 39 | 25% | 94% | |
| 40 | 19% | 69% | |
| 41 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 42 | 12% | 32% | |
| 43 | 11% | 20% | |
| 44 | 8% | 10% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 7% | 96% | |
| 38 | 10% | 89% | Majority |
| 39 | 13% | 79% | |
| 40 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 41 | 26% | 43% | |
| 42 | 11% | 17% | |
| 43 | 5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 37 | 7% | 95% | |
| 38 | 33% | 88% | Majority |
| 39 | 32% | 55% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 23% | |
| 41 | 7% | 10% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 7% | 97% | |
| 35 | 14% | 90% | |
| 36 | 32% | 76% | |
| 37 | 32% | 44% | Median |
| 38 | 7% | 12% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 5% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 4% | 98% | |
| 31 | 8% | 94% | |
| 32 | 27% | 86% | |
| 33 | 25% | 59% | Median |
| 34 | 15% | 34% | |
| 35 | 13% | 18% | Last Result |
| 36 | 4% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 11% | 93% | |
| 29 | 20% | 81% | |
| 30 | 22% | 61% | Median |
| 31 | 17% | 39% | |
| 32 | 15% | 22% | |
| 33 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 26 | 12% | 97% | |
| 27 | 16% | 85% | |
| 28 | 18% | 70% | |
| 29 | 24% | 51% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 27% | |
| 31 | 10% | 12% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98% | |
| 25 | 9% | 94% | |
| 26 | 12% | 85% | |
| 27 | 30% | 74% | |
| 28 | 22% | 43% | Median |
| 29 | 16% | 21% | |
| 30 | 4% | 5% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 7% | 97% | |
| 24 | 10% | 90% | |
| 25 | 29% | 80% | |
| 26 | 31% | 51% | Median |
| 27 | 10% | 20% | |
| 28 | 5% | 9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 29 May–6 June 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%