Les Engagés
Voting Intentions
Last result: 11.0% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 15.4% | 13.1–17.9% | 12.6–18.4% | 12.3–18.8% | 11.6–19.7% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
13.9% | 12.6–15.4% | 12.3–15.9% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.3–17.0% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16.8% | 15.4–18.4% | 15.0–18.9% | 14.6–19.3% | 13.9–20.0% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
13.1% | 11.9–14.6% | 11.5–15.0% | 11.2–15.4% | 10.6–16.1% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
11.0% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.8–13.8% | 8.4–14.3% | 7.7–15.4% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
10.3% | 9.2–11.6% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.6–12.3% | 8.0–13.0% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11.1% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.7–13.9% |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
9.4% | 7.9–11.2% | 7.5–11.8% | 7.1–12.2% | 6.5–13.2% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.0% | 7.0–11.7% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9.1% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.1–11.8% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.8% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.8–11.4% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.8–11.5% | 7.4–12.1% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.0% | 7.0–9.3% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
10.0% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.5–11.8% | 8.2–12.1% | 7.7–12.8% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
10.8% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.9% | 8.5–13.6% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.7% | 7.6–9.9% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.0–10.6% | 6.6–11.3% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
10.3% | 9.1–11.6% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.5–12.3% | 8.0–13.0% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
0.0% | 4.6–8.3% | 4.2–8.9% | 3.8–9.5% | 3.2–10.7% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.2–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Les Engagés.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11.5–12.5% | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 13% | 96% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 19% | 83% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 15.5–16.5% | 17% | 48% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 17% | 31% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 10% | 14% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 10 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 13 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 10–18 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
11 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 11–18 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
11 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
8 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 5–11 | 4–12 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
7 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 3–11 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–10 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 | 2–7 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–11 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
3 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–8 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Les Engagés.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 11 | 35% | 97% | |
| 12 | 6% | 62% | |
| 13 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 14 | 22% | 44% | |
| 15 | 13% | 22% | |
| 16 | 6% | 9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |