Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 18–25 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 21.8% | 20.2–23.5% | 19.7–24.0% | 19.3–24.5% | 18.6–25.3% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 19.8% | 18.2–21.5% | 17.8–22.0% | 17.4–22.4% | 16.7–23.2% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 19.7% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.7–21.9% | 17.3–22.3% | 16.6–23.1% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 14.9% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.8–17.3% | 12.2–18.0% |
| Les Engagés | 11.0% | 13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 12 | 12–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| Les Engagés | 10 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 35% | 98.7% | |
| 18 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 19 | 23% | 45% | |
| 20 | 17% | 22% | |
| 21 | 5% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 8% | 95% | |
| 16 | 14% | 87% | |
| 17 | 51% | 73% | Median |
| 18 | 17% | 22% | |
| 19 | 3% | 5% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 18% | 100% | |
| 15 | 14% | 82% | |
| 16 | 20% | 69% | Median |
| 17 | 36% | 49% | |
| 18 | 9% | 13% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 11 | 5% | 96% | |
| 12 | 48% | 92% | Last Result, Median |
| 13 | 37% | 44% | |
| 14 | 7% | 7% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 8% | 97% | Last Result |
| 11 | 60% | 88% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 29% | |
| 13 | 10% | 11% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 47 | 100% | 46–50 | 46–50 | 45–50 | 44–51 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 47 | 100% | 45–49 | 45–49 | 44–50 | 43–51 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés | 43 | 46 | 100% | 45–48 | 44–49 | 43–49 | 43–50 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés | 45 | 42 | 99.7% | 40–44 | 40–44 | 39–44 | 38–45 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés | 42 | 40 | 93% | 38–41 | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 35 | 7% | 34–37 | 33–38 | 32–38 | 31–39 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 34 | 2% | 33–37 | 32–37 | 32–37 | 31–39 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 29–33 | 29–33 | 27–34 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 33 | 30 | 0% | 28–31 | 28–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 29 | 0% | 27–30 | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 25–33 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 30 | 28 | 0% | 25–29 | 25–29 | 25–30 | 24–31 |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 46 | 12% | 96% | |
| 47 | 42% | 84% | Median |
| 48 | 18% | 42% | |
| 49 | 11% | 24% | |
| 50 | 12% | 13% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 44 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 13% | 97% | |
| 46 | 21% | 84% | Median |
| 47 | 32% | 63% | |
| 48 | 18% | 31% | |
| 49 | 8% | 13% | |
| 50 | 4% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 44 | 6% | 97% | |
| 45 | 17% | 91% | |
| 46 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 47 | 23% | 48% | |
| 48 | 15% | 25% | |
| 49 | 9% | 9% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 9% | 97% | |
| 41 | 30% | 88% | Median |
| 42 | 21% | 57% | |
| 43 | 18% | 37% | |
| 44 | 17% | 19% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 13% | 93% | Majority |
| 39 | 17% | 80% | Median |
| 40 | 30% | 63% | |
| 41 | 24% | 33% | |
| 42 | 7% | 9% | Last Result |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 7% | 97% | Last Result |
| 34 | 24% | 91% | |
| 35 | 30% | 67% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 37% | |
| 37 | 13% | 20% | |
| 38 | 6% | 7% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 5% | 98% | |
| 33 | 16% | 92% | |
| 34 | 30% | 76% | Median |
| 35 | 20% | 46% | |
| 36 | 16% | 26% | |
| 37 | 8% | 10% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 14% | 98% | |
| 30 | 33% | 84% | Median |
| 31 | 22% | 50% | |
| 32 | 15% | 28% | |
| 33 | 12% | 13% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 23% | 96% | |
| 29 | 21% | 73% | Median |
| 30 | 22% | 52% | |
| 31 | 22% | 31% | |
| 32 | 7% | 8% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 15% | 91% | |
| 28 | 23% | 75% | Median |
| 29 | 26% | 52% | |
| 30 | 17% | 26% | |
| 31 | 6% | 9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 27 | 8% | 97% | |
| 28 | 15% | 89% | |
| 29 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 30 | 38% | 48% | |
| 31 | 7% | 10% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 11% | 87% | |
| 27 | 18% | 76% | Median |
| 28 | 42% | 58% | |
| 29 | 12% | 16% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 31 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 18–25 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.38%