Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 10 September–9 October 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 26.2% 27.3% 24.7–30.2% 23.9–31.0% 23.3–31.7% 22.1–33.1%
Mouvement Réformateur 21.4% 20.6% 18.3–23.3% 17.7–24.0% 17.1–24.7% 16.0–26.0%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 13.7% 19.3% 17.0–21.9% 16.4–22.6% 15.8–23.2% 14.8–24.5%
Ecolo 14.5% 11.7% 9.9–13.9% 9.4–14.5% 9.0–15.1% 8.2–16.2%
Les Engagés 11.0% 11.0% 9.3–13.2% 8.8–13.8% 8.4–14.3% 7.7–15.4%
DéFI 4.1% 4.6% 3.5–6.1% 3.2–6.6% 3.0–7.0% 2.5–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 23 23 21–26 20–28 19–28 18–29
Mouvement Réformateur 20 18 14–20 14–21 14–21 13–22
Parti du Travail de Belgique 10 16 14–18 14–19 12–20 10–21
Ecolo 12 9 6–12 6–12 6–12 6–13
Les Engagés 10 8 6–11 6–11 5–11 4–12
DéFI 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.7%  
19 2% 99.4%  
20 7% 97%  
21 12% 91%  
22 24% 79%  
23 24% 55% Last Result, Median
24 11% 31%  
25 6% 20%  
26 5% 14%  
27 4% 9%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.8% 1.2%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 99.9%  
13 0.5% 99.7%  
14 11% 99.3%  
15 8% 89%  
16 10% 81%  
17 10% 71%  
18 15% 61% Median
19 27% 47%  
20 12% 20% Last Result
21 7% 8%  
22 0.7% 1.1%  
23 0.2% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.8% 100% Last Result
11 0.7% 99.2%  
12 1.4% 98%  
13 2% 97%  
14 8% 95%  
15 26% 88%  
16 12% 62% Median
17 36% 50%  
18 6% 14%  
19 3% 7%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 11% 99.8%  
7 20% 89%  
8 16% 69%  
9 13% 53% Median
10 18% 40%  
11 8% 22%  
12 12% 14% Last Result
13 1.3% 1.5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 2% 99.0%  
6 12% 97%  
7 23% 86%  
8 14% 62% Median
9 16% 48%  
10 14% 32% Last Result
11 17% 18%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 26%  
2 3% 18%  
3 5% 15%  
4 8% 10%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 55 50 100% 46–53 45–54 45–54 43–56
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 45 48 100% 45–51 44–52 43–53 42–55
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés 43 48 100% 44–51 43–52 43–53 41–54
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés 45 40 89% 37–44 36–45 36–46 34–47
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur 43 41 88% 37–44 36–45 36–46 34–48
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique 33 39 79% 36–42 36–44 35–44 33–45
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés 42 35 13% 32–38 31–39 30–39 28–41
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo 35 32 2% 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–39
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés 33 32 1.5% 28–35 27–36 27–37 26–39
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 32 27 0% 23–30 22–31 22–31 20–33
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés 30 26 0% 23–30 22–30 21–31 20–32
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 22 25 0% 22–28 21–29 21–30 19–31

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.2%  
45 3% 98%  
46 5% 95%  
47 9% 90%  
48 11% 81%  
49 15% 69%  
50 16% 54% Median
51 14% 38%  
52 10% 23%  
53 8% 14%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.0% 2% Last Result
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 3% 97%  
45 12% 94% Last Result
46 10% 81%  
47 12% 71%  
48 13% 59% Median
49 18% 46%  
50 13% 29%  
51 7% 16%  
52 5% 9%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.5%  
43 3% 98% Last Result
44 6% 95%  
45 8% 89%  
46 13% 80%  
47 14% 68% Median
48 15% 53%  
49 19% 38%  
50 7% 19%  
51 6% 13%  
52 4% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.9% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.5% 99.2%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 94%  
38 9% 89% Majority
39 22% 79%  
40 14% 58% Median
41 13% 44%  
42 11% 31%  
43 7% 20%  
44 7% 14%  
45 4% 6% Last Result
46 2% 3%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 1.3% 99.3%  
36 4% 98%  
37 6% 94%  
38 8% 88% Majority
39 9% 80%  
40 13% 72%  
41 19% 59% Median
42 15% 40%  
43 13% 25% Last Result
44 6% 12%  
45 3% 6%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.0% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
34 1.3% 99.1%  
35 2% 98%  
36 6% 96%  
37 10% 89%  
38 21% 79% Majority
39 18% 58% Median
40 14% 40%  
41 9% 25%  
42 7% 16%  
43 5% 10%  
44 3% 5%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.5%  
30 2% 98.6%  
31 5% 96%  
32 6% 92%  
33 10% 85%  
34 13% 75%  
35 15% 62% Median
36 17% 47%  
37 17% 31%  
38 7% 13% Majority
39 4% 7%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.8% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.0%  
28 7% 97%  
29 9% 90%  
30 12% 82%  
31 13% 70%  
32 17% 57% Median
33 13% 39%  
34 11% 27%  
35 8% 15% Last Result
36 3% 7%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.3% 2% Majority
39 0.6% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 4% 98%  
28 5% 94%  
29 10% 88%  
30 13% 79%  
31 15% 65% Median
32 18% 50%  
33 11% 32% Last Result
34 10% 21%  
35 5% 10%  
36 3% 6%  
37 1.4% 3%  
38 0.8% 1.5% Majority
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 1.4% 99.5%  
22 4% 98%  
23 5% 94%  
24 8% 89%  
25 9% 81%  
26 19% 72%  
27 16% 52% Median
28 13% 36%  
29 12% 24%  
30 6% 12%  
31 4% 6%  
32 1.2% 2% Last Result
33 0.8% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.8% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.0%  
22 3% 97%  
23 7% 93%  
24 9% 86%  
25 16% 77%  
26 19% 61% Median
27 12% 43%  
28 11% 30%  
29 8% 20%  
30 9% 12% Last Result
31 2% 3%  
32 0.9% 1.1%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.8%  
19 0.4% 99.6%  
20 0.9% 99.3%  
21 3% 98%  
22 10% 95% Last Result
23 14% 85%  
24 15% 71%  
25 14% 56% Median
26 11% 42%  
27 14% 31%  
28 8% 16%  
29 5% 8%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.4% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations