Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 4–11 December 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.4–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| Les Engagés | 11.0% | 13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 10 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| Les Engagés | 10 | 11 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–3 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 7% | 87% | |
| 21 | 29% | 79% | |
| 22 | 31% | 50% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 19% | Last Result |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 5% | 97% | |
| 17 | 18% | 92% | |
| 18 | 22% | 74% | |
| 19 | 29% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 13% | 23% | Last Result |
| 21 | 10% | 10% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 98% | |
| 10 | 52% | 96% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 14% | 44% | |
| 12 | 8% | 29% | |
| 13 | 6% | 21% | |
| 14 | 13% | 15% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 11 | 7% | 94% | |
| 12 | 46% | 87% | Last Result, Median |
| 13 | 32% | 40% | |
| 14 | 7% | 8% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 11 | 56% | 97% | Median |
| 12 | 14% | 42% | |
| 13 | 21% | 28% | |
| 14 | 6% | 7% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 52 | 100% | 50–54 | 49–54 | 48–55 | 47–56 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés | 45 | 46 | 100% | 44–47 | 43–48 | 42–48 | 41–50 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 45 | 45 | 100% | 42–47 | 42–47 | 42–48 | 41–49 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés | 43 | 44 | 100% | 42–46 | 42–47 | 41–48 | 41–49 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés | 42 | 43 | 99.7% | 40–45 | 40–46 | 39–46 | 38–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 40 | 89% | 37–42 | 37–42 | 36–43 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 34 | 0.4% | 32–35 | 31–35 | 31–36 | 29–37 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 33 | 33 | 0.4% | 32–35 | 31–35 | 30–36 | 30–37 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 32 | 0.3% | 30–35 | 29–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–33 | 27–33 | 26–34 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 30 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 28–33 | 27–33 | 26–34 |
| Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 22 | 23 | 0% | 22–26 | 21–27 | 20–27 | 20–28 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 4% | 97% | |
| 50 | 13% | 93% | |
| 51 | 15% | 80% | |
| 52 | 20% | 65% | |
| 53 | 14% | 45% | Median |
| 54 | 28% | 31% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 43 | 6% | 97% | |
| 44 | 19% | 91% | |
| 45 | 19% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 46 | 35% | 54% | |
| 47 | 13% | 19% | |
| 48 | 4% | 6% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 8% | 98% | |
| 43 | 15% | 90% | |
| 44 | 16% | 75% | Median |
| 45 | 28% | 59% | Last Result |
| 46 | 18% | 31% | |
| 47 | 9% | 13% | |
| 48 | 3% | 4% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 18% | 97% | |
| 43 | 15% | 79% | Last Result, Median |
| 44 | 22% | 65% | |
| 45 | 20% | 43% | |
| 46 | 16% | 23% | |
| 47 | 4% | 7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 39 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 40 | 9% | 95% | |
| 41 | 11% | 86% | |
| 42 | 24% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 43 | 22% | 51% | |
| 44 | 18% | 29% | |
| 45 | 5% | 11% | |
| 46 | 5% | 6% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 7% | 96% | |
| 38 | 12% | 89% | Majority |
| 39 | 18% | 77% | |
| 40 | 19% | 60% | |
| 41 | 22% | 41% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 19% | |
| 43 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 5% | 98% | |
| 32 | 15% | 93% | |
| 33 | 22% | 78% | |
| 34 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 35 | 31% | 36% | Last Result |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 5% | 96% | |
| 32 | 30% | 91% | |
| 33 | 19% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 34 | 24% | 42% | |
| 35 | 14% | 18% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 5% | 94% | |
| 31 | 19% | 89% | |
| 32 | 23% | 70% | Median |
| 33 | 23% | 47% | Last Result |
| 34 | 11% | 24% | |
| 35 | 9% | 13% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 28 | 4% | 97% | |
| 29 | 17% | 93% | |
| 30 | 20% | 76% | |
| 31 | 21% | 55% | Median |
| 32 | 14% | 34% | Last Result |
| 33 | 17% | 20% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 9% | 96% | |
| 29 | 20% | 87% | |
| 30 | 28% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 31 | 15% | 39% | |
| 32 | 14% | 24% | |
| 33 | 8% | 10% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 6% | 97% | |
| 22 | 28% | 91% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 25% | 64% | |
| 24 | 15% | 39% | |
| 25 | 10% | 23% | |
| 26 | 8% | 14% | |
| 27 | 4% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 4–11 December 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.79%