Opinion Poll by Kantar for Knack and Le Vif, 22 January–8 February 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 24.3% | 22.6–26.1% | 22.1–26.6% | 21.7–27.1% | 21.0–27.9% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 19.9% | 18.4–21.6% | 17.9–22.1% | 17.6–22.5% | 16.8–23.3% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 18.4% | 16.9–20.1% | 16.5–20.5% | 16.1–21.0% | 15.5–21.8% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 13.7% | 12.4–15.2% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.0% | 11.1–16.8% |
| Les Engagés | 11.0% | 13.1% | 11.9–14.6% | 11.5–15.0% | 11.2–15.4% | 10.6–16.1% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 17 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 12–18 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Les Engagés | 10 | 11 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 16% | 97% | |
| 20 | 24% | 81% | |
| 21 | 32% | 56% | Median |
| 22 | 19% | 24% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 12% | 100% | |
| 15 | 15% | 88% | |
| 16 | 20% | 73% | |
| 17 | 25% | 53% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 28% | |
| 19 | 5% | 9% | |
| 20 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 14 | 25% | 98% | |
| 15 | 21% | 73% | |
| 16 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 17 | 32% | 34% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 4% | 97% | |
| 10 | 16% | 94% | |
| 11 | 16% | 78% | |
| 12 | 51% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 13 | 10% | 11% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 5% | 96% | |
| 10 | 15% | 91% | Last Result |
| 11 | 68% | 77% | Median |
| 12 | 6% | 9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 49 | 100% | 47–50 | 46–51 | 46–51 | 45–53 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 48 | 100% | 46–50 | 45–50 | 44–50 | 43–51 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés | 43 | 47 | 100% | 45–49 | 44–49 | 44–50 | 43–51 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés | 45 | 43 | 99.8% | 41–44 | 40–45 | 39–46 | 38–46 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés | 42 | 39 | 76% | 37–41 | 36–41 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 37 | 38% | 35–40 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 36 | 23% | 34–38 | 34–38 | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 33 | 32 | 0% | 30–33 | 29–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 28 | 0% | 26–30 | 26–31 | 25–31 | 24–32 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 30 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 23–30 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 4% | 98% | |
| 47 | 19% | 94% | |
| 48 | 23% | 75% | |
| 49 | 21% | 52% | |
| 50 | 24% | 31% | Median |
| 51 | 5% | 8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 46 | 17% | 92% | |
| 47 | 23% | 74% | |
| 48 | 20% | 52% | |
| 49 | 14% | 31% | Median |
| 50 | 15% | 17% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 44 | 4% | 98% | |
| 45 | 10% | 94% | |
| 46 | 23% | 84% | |
| 47 | 24% | 61% | |
| 48 | 19% | 37% | Median |
| 49 | 15% | 18% | |
| 50 | 3% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 39 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 5% | 97% | |
| 41 | 13% | 92% | |
| 42 | 16% | 79% | |
| 43 | 25% | 63% | |
| 44 | 30% | 38% | Median |
| 45 | 6% | 9% | Last Result |
| 46 | 3% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 19% | 95% | |
| 38 | 21% | 76% | Majority |
| 39 | 24% | 55% | |
| 40 | 18% | 31% | Median |
| 41 | 8% | 13% | |
| 42 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 9% | 96% | |
| 36 | 26% | 87% | |
| 37 | 23% | 61% | |
| 38 | 17% | 38% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 22% | |
| 40 | 7% | 11% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 4% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 34 | 9% | 95% | |
| 35 | 18% | 86% | |
| 36 | 25% | 69% | |
| 37 | 21% | 44% | Median |
| 38 | 18% | 23% | Majority |
| 39 | 4% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 10% | 95% | |
| 31 | 17% | 85% | |
| 32 | 26% | 67% | |
| 33 | 28% | 41% | Median |
| 34 | 9% | 13% | |
| 35 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 6% | 96% | |
| 30 | 14% | 91% | |
| 31 | 24% | 76% | |
| 32 | 35% | 52% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 17% | Last Result |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 15% | 96% | |
| 27 | 19% | 81% | |
| 28 | 24% | 62% | |
| 29 | 23% | 38% | Median |
| 30 | 10% | 15% | |
| 31 | 4% | 5% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 16% | 98% | |
| 26 | 15% | 83% | |
| 27 | 21% | 68% | |
| 28 | 23% | 48% | Median |
| 29 | 17% | 25% | |
| 30 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 5% | 97% | |
| 25 | 9% | 91% | |
| 26 | 17% | 82% | |
| 27 | 24% | 66% | |
| 28 | 22% | 42% | Median |
| 29 | 16% | 20% | |
| 30 | 4% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): Knack and Le Vif
- Fieldwork period: 22 January–8 February 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1004
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.37%