Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 11–18 March 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.9–24.0% | 18.1–24.8% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.4–24.0% |
| Les Engagés | 11.0% | 16.8% | 15.4–18.4% | 15.0–18.9% | 14.6–19.3% | 13.9–20.0% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 14.9% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.8–17.3% | 12.2–18.0% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 11.9% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 19 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| Les Engagés | 10 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 11–18 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 10 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 18% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 13% | 82% | |
| 19 | 44% | 69% | Median |
| 20 | 12% | 25% | |
| 21 | 10% | 13% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 8% | 96% | |
| 17 | 12% | 89% | |
| 18 | 22% | 76% | |
| 19 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 36% | Last Result |
| 21 | 19% | 19% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 13 | 13% | 98% | |
| 14 | 41% | 84% | Median |
| 15 | 25% | 43% | |
| 16 | 11% | 18% | |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 26% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 11 | 12% | 73% | |
| 12 | 9% | 61% | |
| 13 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 14 | 40% | 44% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 14% | 90% | |
| 9 | 23% | 76% | |
| 10 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 11 | 12% | 31% | |
| 12 | 17% | 19% | Last Result |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 29% | |
| 2 | 3% | 22% | |
| 3 | 10% | 19% | |
| 4 | 8% | 9% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 47 | 100% | 45–51 | 44–51 | 43–51 | 42–52 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 43 | 46 | 100% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–50 | 41–50 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 45 | 43 | 99.9% | 40–46 | 40–47 | 40–47 | 38–48 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 42 | 43 | 99.7% | 41–45 | 40–46 | 39–47 | 38–48 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 41 | 95% | 38–44 | 38–44 | 37–45 | 35–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 38 | 55% | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–41 | 33–42 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 33 | 33 | 0.9% | 31–36 | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–38 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 30 | 33 | 1.0% | 31–36 | 30–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 27–36 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 28 | 0% | 26–31 | 25–32 | 25–33 | 23–33 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 29 | 0% | 26–31 | 25–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 22 | 0% | 19–25 | 18–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 44 | 4% | 96% | |
| 45 | 10% | 92% | |
| 46 | 17% | 82% | |
| 47 | 23% | 65% | |
| 48 | 14% | 42% | Median |
| 49 | 10% | 28% | |
| 50 | 8% | 18% | |
| 51 | 9% | 10% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 5% | 98% | |
| 43 | 7% | 93% | Last Result |
| 44 | 11% | 86% | |
| 45 | 18% | 75% | |
| 46 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 47 | 20% | 38% | |
| 48 | 11% | 18% | |
| 49 | 5% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 9% | 98% | |
| 41 | 11% | 89% | |
| 42 | 18% | 78% | |
| 43 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 44 | 17% | 43% | |
| 45 | 13% | 26% | Last Result |
| 46 | 7% | 13% | |
| 47 | 4% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 40 | 5% | 96% | |
| 41 | 10% | 91% | |
| 42 | 27% | 81% | Last Result |
| 43 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 44 | 20% | 39% | |
| 45 | 9% | 19% | |
| 46 | 6% | 10% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 6% | 95% | Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 89% | |
| 40 | 19% | 78% | |
| 41 | 17% | 59% | |
| 42 | 19% | 42% | Median |
| 43 | 12% | 23% | |
| 44 | 8% | 11% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 5% | 97% | |
| 35 | 7% | 92% | |
| 36 | 12% | 85% | |
| 37 | 18% | 73% | |
| 38 | 23% | 55% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 13% | 32% | |
| 40 | 10% | 19% | |
| 41 | 7% | 9% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 9% | 98% | |
| 32 | 19% | 88% | |
| 33 | 25% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 34 | 17% | 44% | |
| 35 | 15% | 27% | |
| 36 | 9% | 12% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 31 | 11% | 93% | |
| 32 | 19% | 82% | |
| 33 | 21% | 63% | Median |
| 34 | 16% | 42% | |
| 35 | 15% | 27% | |
| 36 | 8% | 12% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 5% | 97% | |
| 29 | 11% | 92% | |
| 30 | 14% | 81% | |
| 31 | 22% | 67% | |
| 32 | 15% | 46% | Median |
| 33 | 23% | 31% | Last Result |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 9% | 93% | |
| 27 | 15% | 85% | |
| 28 | 24% | 70% | |
| 29 | 19% | 46% | Median |
| 30 | 14% | 28% | |
| 31 | 7% | 14% | |
| 32 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 33 | 3% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 10% | 94% | |
| 27 | 12% | 84% | |
| 28 | 20% | 72% | |
| 29 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 30 | 15% | 35% | |
| 31 | 12% | 19% | |
| 32 | 6% | 8% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98% | |
| 19 | 7% | 95% | |
| 20 | 12% | 88% | |
| 21 | 13% | 76% | |
| 22 | 18% | 63% | Last Result |
| 23 | 21% | 44% | Median |
| 24 | 12% | 24% | |
| 25 | 6% | 11% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 11–18 March 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.08%