Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 8–18 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 26.2% 25.4% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.2% 22.0–29.1%
Mouvement Réformateur 21.4% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 13.7% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Les Engagés 11.0% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.3–15.9% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–17.0%
Ecolo 14.5% 12.7% 11.5–14.2% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–15.0% 10.2–15.7%
DéFI 4.1% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 23 22 20–23 19–23 19–24 19–25
Mouvement Réformateur 20 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 14–21
Parti du Travail de Belgique 10 14 10–15 10–15 10–16 10–17
Les Engagés 10 11 11–13 10–13 10–14 9–15
Ecolo 12 10 9–12 8–12 7–13 7–13
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0–2 0–4

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 5% 99.8%  
20 6% 95%  
21 26% 89%  
22 36% 63% Median
23 23% 26% Last Result
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 1.0%  
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 3% 98%  
16 6% 95%  
17 17% 89%  
18 30% 72% Median
19 20% 42%  
20 14% 22% Last Result
21 7% 7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 13% 99.8% Last Result
11 9% 87%  
12 8% 79%  
13 11% 71%  
14 48% 60% Median
15 9% 12%  
16 2% 3%  
17 1.4% 1.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 0.7% 99.7%  
10 5% 99.0% Last Result
11 69% 95% Median
12 12% 26%  
13 11% 14%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.7% 0.7%  
16 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 5% 97%  
9 19% 92%  
10 28% 73% Median
11 15% 44%  
12 26% 29% Last Result
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 4%  
2 0.8% 3%  
3 1.1% 2%  
4 0.6% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 55 50 100% 48–53 48–54 47–54 46–54
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés 43 46 100% 44–48 43–49 42–50 42–51
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 45 45 100% 43–47 42–48 42–49 41–50
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo 45 43 100% 41–46 41–46 40–47 39–48
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo 42 40 94% 38–42 37–43 37–44 36–44
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur 43 40 91% 38–42 37–43 36–43 36–44
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique 33 35 5% 33–37 32–38 31–38 30–39
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés 33 33 0.5% 32–35 31–35 31–36 30–38
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo 35 32 0.1% 30–35 29–35 29–35 28–36
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés 30 29 0% 28–32 27–33 26–33 25–34
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 32 29 0% 27–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 22 23 0% 21–26 20–26 20–27 19–28

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 1.1% 99.7%  
47 3% 98.6%  
48 7% 95%  
49 11% 88%  
50 39% 77% Median
51 13% 37%  
52 10% 24%  
53 8% 14%  
54 6% 6%  
55 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 3% 99.9%  
43 3% 97% Last Result
44 8% 94%  
45 14% 86%  
46 27% 73%  
47 26% 45% Median
48 10% 19%  
49 6% 9%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.7%  
42 5% 98.8%  
43 10% 94%  
44 13% 84%  
45 23% 71% Last Result
46 29% 49% Median
47 13% 20%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 1.0% 1.0%  
51 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100% Majority
39 1.1% 99.9%  
40 3% 98.8%  
41 8% 96%  
42 13% 87%  
43 25% 74% Median
44 22% 49%  
45 13% 28% Last Result
46 11% 14%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.8% 99.7%  
37 5% 98.8%  
38 9% 94% Majority
39 29% 85% Median
40 23% 56%  
41 13% 33%  
42 12% 20% Last Result
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.6%  
37 6% 97%  
38 11% 91% Majority
39 17% 80%  
40 19% 63% Median
41 23% 44%  
42 14% 21%  
43 7% 7% Last Result
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.4%  
32 6% 96%  
33 12% 91% Last Result
34 13% 78%  
35 23% 65%  
36 29% 42% Median
37 8% 13%  
38 4% 5% Majority
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.6%  
31 5% 98%  
32 27% 92%  
33 27% 66% Last Result, Median
34 22% 38%  
35 12% 16%  
36 2% 4%  
37 0.8% 1.3%  
38 0.4% 0.5% Majority
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 4% 98%  
30 9% 94%  
31 16% 85%  
32 30% 69% Median
33 20% 39%  
34 9% 19%  
35 9% 10% Last Result
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1% Majority
39 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 1.1% 100%  
26 2% 98.9%  
27 5% 97%  
28 13% 92%  
29 30% 79% Median
30 22% 49% Last Result
31 12% 27%  
32 9% 14%  
33 5% 5%  
34 0.7% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.5% 99.8%  
25 3% 99.3%  
26 7% 97%  
27 11% 90%  
28 27% 80% Median
29 27% 53%  
30 13% 26%  
31 7% 12%  
32 3% 5% Last Result
33 2% 2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.7%  
20 4% 98.9%  
21 7% 95%  
22 16% 88% Last Result
23 23% 71%  
24 20% 48% Median
25 14% 29%  
26 10% 15%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.9% 1.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations