Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 14–20 May 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 22.6% | 21.0–24.4% | 20.5–24.9% | 20.1–25.3% | 19.3–26.2% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 22.6% | 21.0–24.4% | 20.5–24.9% | 20.1–25.3% | 19.3–26.2% |
| Les Engagés | 11.0% | 18.1% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.2% | 15.8–20.6% | 15.2–21.4% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 14.5% | 13.2–16.0% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.5–16.8% | 11.8–17.6% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 8.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.4% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 20 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–25 |
| Les Engagés | 10 | 15 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 11 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 8–15 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 97% | |
| 19 | 41% | 93% | |
| 20 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 21 | 21% | 39% | |
| 22 | 15% | 18% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 8% | 97% | |
| 20 | 21% | 89% | Last Result |
| 21 | 52% | 68% | Median |
| 22 | 9% | 15% | |
| 23 | 4% | 6% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 49% | 97% | Median |
| 16 | 24% | 47% | |
| 17 | 10% | 23% | |
| 18 | 8% | 12% | |
| 19 | 4% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 25% | 98% | Last Result |
| 11 | 26% | 73% | Median |
| 12 | 11% | 47% | |
| 13 | 9% | 36% | |
| 14 | 25% | 27% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 68% | 97% | Median |
| 7 | 26% | 29% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 13% | |
| 2 | 2% | 6% | |
| 3 | 4% | 5% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 55 | 47 | 100% | 45–49 | 45–50 | 44–50 | 43–51 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 43 | 48 | 100% | 46–49 | 45–50 | 44–50 | 43–51 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 42 | 43 | 100% | 41–45 | 41–46 | 40–46 | 39–47 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 45 | 42 | 99.9% | 40–44 | 40–45 | 39–45 | 38–46 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste | 43 | 40 | 98.7% | 39–43 | 38–44 | 38–44 | 37–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 39 | 70% | 36–40 | 35–41 | 35–41 | 34–42 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 30 | 36 | 25% | 35–39 | 34–40 | 34–40 | 33–41 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 33 | 36 | 14% | 34–38 | 33–38 | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 32 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–34 | 29–35 | 27–36 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 27 | 0% | 26–28 | 25–29 | 25–30 | 23–31 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 26 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 18 | 0% | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 11% | 96% | |
| 46 | 29% | 86% | |
| 47 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 48 | 15% | 40% | |
| 49 | 16% | 24% | |
| 50 | 7% | 8% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 11% | 94% | Median |
| 47 | 23% | 83% | |
| 48 | 34% | 60% | |
| 49 | 21% | 26% | |
| 50 | 3% | 5% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.3% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98% | |
| 41 | 10% | 96% | |
| 42 | 35% | 86% | Last Result, Median |
| 43 | 20% | 51% | |
| 44 | 13% | 31% | |
| 45 | 10% | 18% | |
| 46 | 6% | 8% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 40 | 18% | 97% | |
| 41 | 13% | 80% | Median |
| 42 | 19% | 66% | |
| 43 | 30% | 47% | |
| 44 | 12% | 17% | |
| 45 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 46 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 5% | 98.7% | Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 93% | |
| 40 | 33% | 82% | |
| 41 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 42 | 16% | 33% | |
| 43 | 12% | 17% | Last Result |
| 44 | 5% | 6% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 36 | 10% | 91% | |
| 37 | 12% | 81% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 70% | Majority |
| 39 | 38% | 52% | |
| 40 | 9% | 14% | |
| 41 | 4% | 5% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 5% | 98% | |
| 35 | 10% | 93% | |
| 36 | 43% | 83% | Median |
| 37 | 16% | 41% | |
| 38 | 10% | 25% | Majority |
| 39 | 8% | 14% | |
| 40 | 5% | 6% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 4% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 34 | 18% | 95% | |
| 35 | 16% | 77% | Median |
| 36 | 28% | 62% | |
| 37 | 20% | 34% | |
| 38 | 11% | 14% | Majority |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 9% | 98% | |
| 30 | 12% | 89% | |
| 31 | 15% | 77% | Median |
| 32 | 20% | 62% | |
| 33 | 31% | 43% | Last Result |
| 34 | 8% | 11% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 23% | 94% | |
| 27 | 38% | 70% | Median |
| 28 | 22% | 32% | |
| 29 | 7% | 10% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98% | |
| 25 | 34% | 95% | |
| 26 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 27 | 16% | 44% | |
| 28 | 24% | 28% | |
| 29 | 3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 17% | 97% | |
| 17 | 22% | 80% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 58% | |
| 19 | 10% | 39% | |
| 20 | 23% | 29% | |
| 21 | 5% | 6% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 14–20 May 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.58%