Opinion Poll by Cluster17 for RTL TVi, 28–31 May 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 26.2% | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.4–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 21.4% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| Les Engagés | 11.0% | 17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.6–20.4% | 15.0–21.2% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 13.7% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
| Ecolo | 14.5% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| DéFI | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23 | 20 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 17–24 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 20 | 21 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Les Engagés | 10 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 11–19 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 10 | 14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 |
| Ecolo | 12 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 2–7 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–3 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 36% | 98% | |
| 20 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 21 | 20% | 46% | |
| 22 | 21% | 27% | |
| 23 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 8% | 94% | |
| 20 | 27% | 86% | Last Result |
| 21 | 52% | 60% | Median |
| 22 | 5% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 14 | 9% | 96% | |
| 15 | 61% | 88% | Median |
| 16 | 20% | 26% | |
| 17 | 3% | 6% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 11 | 15% | 95% | |
| 12 | 10% | 80% | |
| 13 | 13% | 70% | |
| 14 | 45% | 57% | Median |
| 15 | 8% | 12% | |
| 16 | 2% | 4% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 4 | 4% | 98% | |
| 5 | 17% | 93% | |
| 6 | 72% | 76% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 43 | 49 | 100% | 48–50 | 47–51 | 46–52 | 45–52 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 55 | 46 | 100% | 45–49 | 45–49 | 44–50 | 43–50 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 42 | 42 | 99.0% | 39–43 | 39–44 | 38–44 | 37–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 45 | 41 | 99.3% | 40–43 | 39–44 | 38–44 | 37–45 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 43 | 40 | 99.2% | 39–43 | 39–43 | 38–44 | 37–45 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 45 | 39 | 92% | 38–41 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 30 | 36 | 7% | 34–37 | 33–38 | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 33 | 36 | 12% | 34–38 | 33–38 | 33–38 | 32–39 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 33 | 33 | 0.9% | 32–36 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 35 | 26 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 32 | 26 | 0% | 24–27 | 24–28 | 23–28 | 22–29 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 22 | 19 | 0% | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 47 | 6% | 97% | |
| 48 | 36% | 91% | |
| 49 | 34% | 54% | Median |
| 50 | 10% | 20% | |
| 51 | 7% | 10% | |
| 52 | 3% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 45 | 15% | 95% | |
| 46 | 41% | 81% | |
| 47 | 13% | 40% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 26% | |
| 49 | 11% | 14% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 3% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 39 | 7% | 96% | |
| 40 | 11% | 89% | |
| 41 | 24% | 78% | |
| 42 | 41% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 43 | 8% | 14% | |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.3% | Majority |
| 39 | 6% | 97% | |
| 40 | 30% | 91% | |
| 41 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 42 | 17% | 43% | |
| 43 | 19% | 26% | |
| 44 | 6% | 7% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 3% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 39 | 9% | 96% | |
| 40 | 38% | 87% | |
| 41 | 16% | 49% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 33% | |
| 43 | 14% | 18% | Last Result |
| 44 | 4% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 37 | 4% | 96% | |
| 38 | 11% | 92% | Majority |
| 39 | 48% | 81% | |
| 40 | 18% | 33% | Median |
| 41 | 8% | 16% | |
| 42 | 6% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 6% | 98% | |
| 34 | 8% | 92% | |
| 35 | 18% | 84% | |
| 36 | 48% | 66% | Median |
| 37 | 10% | 17% | |
| 38 | 4% | 7% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 34 | 23% | 93% | |
| 35 | 20% | 71% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 51% | |
| 37 | 18% | 30% | |
| 38 | 10% | 12% | Majority |
| 39 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 31 | 4% | 97% | |
| 32 | 8% | 93% | |
| 33 | 40% | 85% | Last Result |
| 34 | 24% | 45% | Median |
| 35 | 10% | 21% | |
| 36 | 7% | 11% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 6% | 98% | |
| 25 | 39% | 92% | |
| 26 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 27 | 16% | 39% | |
| 28 | 20% | 23% | |
| 29 | 3% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 24 | 7% | 96% | |
| 25 | 11% | 90% | |
| 26 | 35% | 79% | |
| 27 | 36% | 44% | Median |
| 28 | 6% | 8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 7% | 98% | |
| 17 | 14% | 92% | |
| 18 | 16% | 78% | |
| 19 | 17% | 62% | |
| 20 | 34% | 45% | Median |
| 21 | 8% | 10% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 23 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Cluster17
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi
- Fieldwork period: 28–31 May 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.82%