DéFI
Voting Intentions
Last result: 4.1% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
4.6% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.2–6.6% | 3.0–7.0% | 2.5–7.8% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
5.4% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.3% | 3.7–7.7% | 3.3–8.5% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.4–5.5% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.1% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.7% | 3.5–7.2% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.5–5.8% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
4.3% | 3.1–6.3% | 2.7–6.8% | 2.5–7.3% | 2.0–8.4% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.0% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.5–7.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for DéFI.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 56% | 86% | Last Result, Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 28% | 31% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
1 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–4 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–4 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for DéFI.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |