Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 1–9 December 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23.2% | 29.0% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.4–32.8% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 29.6% | 21.3% | 19.7–23.1% | 19.3–23.6% | 18.9–24.0% | 18.2–24.8% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 12.1% | 19.5% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.6–21.7% | 17.2–22.1% | 16.5–22.9% |
| Les Engagés | 20.6% | 17.2% | 15.8–18.9% | 15.4–19.3% | 15.0–19.7% | 14.4–20.5% |
| Ecolo | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| Chez Nous | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| DéFI | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 19 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 20–27 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 26 | 17 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–20 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 8 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Les Engagés | 17 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Ecolo | 5 | 5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 1–6 |
| Chez Nous | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 22 | 4% | 97% | |
| 23 | 42% | 94% | |
| 24 | 21% | 51% | Median |
| 25 | 17% | 31% | |
| 26 | 11% | 13% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 16 | 7% | 95% | |
| 17 | 47% | 88% | Median |
| 18 | 21% | 41% | |
| 19 | 12% | 20% | |
| 20 | 7% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 32% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 30% | 67% | Median |
| 16 | 31% | 38% | |
| 17 | 6% | 7% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 13 | 24% | 92% | |
| 14 | 24% | 68% | Median |
| 15 | 43% | 43% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 96% | |
| 3 | 18% | 89% | |
| 4 | 13% | 70% | |
| 5 | 55% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 2% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Chez Nous
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 16% | |
| 2 | 14% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés | 44 | 53 | 100% | 51–55 | 50–56 | 50–56 | 49–57 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 50 | 45 | 100% | 44–47 | 44–48 | 43–49 | 42–49 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 32 | 43 | 100% | 41–45 | 41–45 | 40–46 | 39–47 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 41 | 42 | 99.9% | 40–44 | 40–44 | 39–45 | 38–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 45 | 41 | 99.7% | 40–43 | 39–44 | 39–45 | 38–46 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 27 | 39 | 85% | 37–41 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 36 | 38 | 64% | 36–40 | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–42 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 48 | 36 | 9% | 34–37 | 33–38 | 33–38 | 32–39 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 43 | 31 | 0% | 30–33 | 29–34 | 29–34 | 28–35 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 24 | 28 | 0% | 26–30 | 25–31 | 25–31 | 24–32 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 31 | 22 | 0% | 20–24 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–25 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 13 | 19 | 0% | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 12% | 95% | |
| 52 | 12% | 82% | |
| 53 | 39% | 70% | Median |
| 54 | 14% | 31% | |
| 55 | 10% | 17% | |
| 56 | 5% | 7% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 44 | 17% | 95% | |
| 45 | 31% | 78% | |
| 46 | 25% | 47% | Median |
| 47 | 13% | 22% | |
| 48 | 5% | 9% | |
| 49 | 3% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 9% | 96% | |
| 42 | 20% | 87% | |
| 43 | 25% | 67% | |
| 44 | 24% | 42% | Median |
| 45 | 13% | 18% | |
| 46 | 3% | 4% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 39 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 11% | 96% | |
| 41 | 17% | 84% | Last Result |
| 42 | 27% | 68% | |
| 43 | 26% | 40% | Median |
| 44 | 10% | 14% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 39 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 40 | 19% | 93% | |
| 41 | 35% | 74% | Median |
| 42 | 19% | 39% | |
| 43 | 11% | 21% | |
| 44 | 7% | 10% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 46 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 12% | 97% | |
| 38 | 21% | 85% | Majority |
| 39 | 29% | 64% | Median |
| 40 | 23% | 35% | |
| 41 | 7% | 13% | |
| 42 | 4% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 12% | 95% | Last Result |
| 37 | 19% | 83% | |
| 38 | 32% | 64% | Median, Majority |
| 39 | 20% | 32% | |
| 40 | 7% | 12% | |
| 41 | 4% | 5% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 5% | 98% | |
| 34 | 10% | 93% | |
| 35 | 26% | 83% | |
| 36 | 31% | 57% | Median |
| 37 | 17% | 26% | |
| 38 | 7% | 9% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 16% | 94% | |
| 31 | 30% | 78% | Median |
| 32 | 24% | 48% | |
| 33 | 16% | 24% | |
| 34 | 6% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 25 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 9% | 94% | |
| 27 | 18% | 85% | |
| 28 | 33% | 67% | |
| 29 | 16% | 33% | Median |
| 30 | 10% | 17% | |
| 31 | 6% | 7% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 6% | 98% | |
| 20 | 13% | 92% | |
| 21 | 17% | 79% | |
| 22 | 41% | 62% | Median |
| 23 | 11% | 21% | |
| 24 | 7% | 10% | |
| 25 | 3% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98% | |
| 17 | 7% | 96% | |
| 18 | 7% | 89% | |
| 19 | 41% | 82% | |
| 20 | 22% | 40% | Median |
| 21 | 16% | 19% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 1–9 December 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.93%