Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 16–23 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23.2% | 26.2% | 24.5–28.0% | 24.0–28.6% | 23.6–29.0% | 22.8–29.9% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 29.6% | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.4–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 12.1% | 18.4% | 16.9–20.1% | 16.5–20.5% | 16.1–20.9% | 15.4–21.7% |
| Les Engagés | 20.6% | 18.2% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.3–20.3% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.2–21.5% |
| Ecolo | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
| Chez Nous | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| DéFI | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 19 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–25 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 26 | 20 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 8 | 14 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 11–17 |
| Les Engagés | 17 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| Ecolo | 5 | 5 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 1–7 |
| Chez Nous | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 11% | 97% | Last Result |
| 20 | 23% | 86% | |
| 21 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 22 | 21% | 48% | |
| 23 | 23% | 27% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 14% | 95% | |
| 19 | 19% | 81% | |
| 20 | 44% | 62% | Median |
| 21 | 13% | 18% | |
| 22 | 4% | 5% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 6% | 98% | |
| 14 | 51% | 92% | Median |
| 15 | 31% | 41% | |
| 16 | 9% | 10% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 7% | 97% | |
| 14 | 16% | 90% | |
| 15 | 66% | 73% | Median |
| 16 | 4% | 7% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 3 | 9% | 92% | |
| 4 | 7% | 84% | |
| 5 | 68% | 76% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 5% | 9% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Chez Nous
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 2 | 15% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés | 44 | 50 | 100% | 48–53 | 48–53 | 47–53 | 46–54 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 50 | 46 | 100% | 44–47 | 43–48 | 43–48 | 42–49 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 45 | 41 | 98.5% | 39–43 | 39–43 | 38–44 | 37–45 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 41 | 40 | 98% | 39–43 | 38–43 | 38–43 | 37–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 32 | 40 | 97% | 38–42 | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 48 | 39 | 82% | 37–41 | 36–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 36 | 36 | 21% | 34–38 | 33–38 | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 27 | 36 | 14% | 34–38 | 33–38 | 33–39 | 32–39 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 43 | 34 | 1.3% | 33–36 | 32–37 | 31–37 | 31–38 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 24 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 31 | 25 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–28 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 13 | 19 | 0% | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 15–23 |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 48 | 9% | 97% | |
| 49 | 15% | 89% | |
| 50 | 30% | 73% | Median |
| 51 | 17% | 43% | |
| 52 | 16% | 27% | |
| 53 | 9% | 10% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 43 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 44 | 11% | 94% | |
| 45 | 32% | 83% | |
| 46 | 32% | 51% | Median |
| 47 | 13% | 19% | |
| 48 | 4% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98.5% | Majority |
| 39 | 10% | 96% | |
| 40 | 26% | 85% | |
| 41 | 29% | 59% | Median |
| 42 | 16% | 30% | |
| 43 | 10% | 15% | |
| 44 | 4% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 5% | 98% | Majority |
| 39 | 10% | 93% | |
| 40 | 34% | 83% | |
| 41 | 23% | 49% | Last Result, Median |
| 42 | 13% | 26% | |
| 43 | 11% | 13% | |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 8% | 97% | Majority |
| 39 | 16% | 89% | |
| 40 | 30% | 73% | Median |
| 41 | 21% | 44% | |
| 42 | 16% | 22% | |
| 43 | 5% | 7% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 37 | 12% | 94% | |
| 38 | 20% | 82% | Majority |
| 39 | 24% | 62% | |
| 40 | 22% | 38% | Median |
| 41 | 9% | 16% | |
| 42 | 6% | 7% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 34 | 10% | 95% | |
| 35 | 27% | 85% | |
| 36 | 20% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 37 | 17% | 37% | |
| 38 | 17% | 21% | Majority |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 8% | 98.5% | |
| 34 | 13% | 90% | |
| 35 | 23% | 77% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 54% | |
| 37 | 19% | 32% | |
| 38 | 10% | 14% | Majority |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 7% | 97% | |
| 33 | 18% | 91% | |
| 34 | 26% | 73% | |
| 35 | 29% | 47% | Median |
| 36 | 10% | 18% | |
| 37 | 6% | 8% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 4% | 98% | |
| 24 | 10% | 95% | Last Result |
| 25 | 29% | 84% | |
| 26 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 37% | |
| 28 | 15% | 18% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 11% | 97% | |
| 23 | 17% | 86% | |
| 24 | 19% | 69% | |
| 25 | 32% | 50% | Median |
| 26 | 12% | 18% | |
| 27 | 5% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 7% | 95% | |
| 18 | 11% | 88% | |
| 19 | 43% | 77% | Median |
| 20 | 24% | 34% | |
| 21 | 8% | 10% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 16–23 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.11%