Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 16–23 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 23.2% 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
Mouvement Réformateur 29.6% 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 12.1% 18.4% 16.9–20.1% 16.5–20.5% 16.1–20.9% 15.4–21.7%
Les Engagés 20.6% 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
Ecolo 7.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Chez Nous 2.8% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
DéFI 2.7% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 19 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 18–25
Mouvement Réformateur 26 20 18–21 17–22 17–22 17–23
Parti du Travail de Belgique 8 14 14–16 13–16 13–16 11–17
Les Engagés 17 15 13–15 13–16 12–17 12–18
Ecolo 5 5 3–5 2–6 2–7 1–7
Chez Nous 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0 0

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 11% 97% Last Result
20 23% 86%  
21 15% 63% Median
22 21% 48%  
23 23% 27%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.1% 1.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 5% 99.9%  
18 14% 95%  
19 19% 81%  
20 44% 62% Median
21 13% 18%  
22 4% 5%  
23 1.1% 1.3%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.8% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.2%  
13 6% 98%  
14 51% 92% Median
15 31% 41%  
16 9% 10%  
17 1.1% 1.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 7% 97%  
14 16% 90%  
15 66% 73% Median
16 4% 7%  
17 2% 3% Last Result
18 0.7% 1.0%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 7% 99.1%  
3 9% 92%  
4 7% 84%  
5 68% 76% Last Result, Median
6 5% 9%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chez Nous

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 16%  
2 15% 16%  
3 0.5% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés 44 50 100% 48–53 48–53 47–53 46–54
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 50 46 100% 44–47 43–48 43–48 42–49
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur 45 41 98.5% 39–43 39–43 38–44 37–45
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo 41 40 98% 39–43 38–43 38–43 37–44
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 32 40 97% 38–42 38–43 37–43 36–44
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo 48 39 82% 37–41 36–42 36–42 35–43
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés 36 36 21% 34–38 33–38 33–39 32–40
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique 27 36 14% 34–38 33–38 33–39 32–39
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés 43 34 1.3% 33–36 32–37 31–37 31–38
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo 24 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 22–30
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 31 25 0% 22–26 22–27 21–27 21–28
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 13 19 0% 17–21 17–21 16–21 15–23

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 9% 97%  
49 15% 89%  
50 30% 73% Median
51 17% 43%  
52 16% 27%  
53 9% 10%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.5%  
43 4% 98.5%  
44 11% 94%  
45 32% 83%  
46 32% 51% Median
47 13% 19%  
48 4% 6%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 1.1% 99.7%  
38 3% 98.5% Majority
39 10% 96%  
40 26% 85%  
41 29% 59% Median
42 16% 30%  
43 10% 15%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.6%  
38 5% 98% Majority
39 10% 93%  
40 34% 83%  
41 23% 49% Last Result, Median
42 13% 26%  
43 11% 13%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 8% 97% Majority
39 16% 89%  
40 30% 73% Median
41 21% 44%  
42 16% 22%  
43 5% 7%  
44 1.3% 1.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.9%  
36 5% 99.0%  
37 12% 94%  
38 20% 82% Majority
39 24% 62%  
40 22% 38% Median
41 9% 16%  
42 6% 7%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.9%  
33 4% 98.7%  
34 10% 95%  
35 27% 85%  
36 20% 58% Last Result, Median
37 17% 37%  
38 17% 21% Majority
39 3% 3%  
40 0.6% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.7%  
33 8% 98.5%  
34 13% 90%  
35 23% 77% Median
36 21% 54%  
37 19% 32%  
38 10% 14% Majority
39 3% 3%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 2% 99.7%  
32 7% 97%  
33 18% 91%  
34 26% 73%  
35 29% 47% Median
36 10% 18%  
37 6% 8%  
38 1.0% 1.3% Majority
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.5%  
23 4% 98%  
24 10% 95% Last Result
25 29% 84%  
26 18% 56% Median
27 19% 37%  
28 15% 18%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 11% 97%  
23 17% 86%  
24 19% 69%  
25 32% 50% Median
26 12% 18%  
27 5% 6%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.3%  
17 7% 95%  
18 11% 88%  
19 43% 77% Median
20 24% 34%  
21 8% 10%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations