Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 4–11 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23.2% | 25.8% | 24.1–27.6% | 23.6–28.2% | 23.2–28.6% | 22.4–29.5% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 29.6% | 24.8% | 23.1–26.6% | 22.6–27.1% | 22.2–27.6% | 21.4–28.5% |
| Les Engagés | 20.6% | 18.5% | 17.0–20.1% | 16.6–20.6% | 16.2–21.0% | 15.5–21.8% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 12.1% | 17.4% | 15.9–19.0% | 15.5–19.5% | 15.2–19.9% | 14.5–20.7% |
| Ecolo | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% |
| Chez Nous | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| DéFI | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 19 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–25 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 26 | 20 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Les Engagés | 17 | 15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–19 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 8 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Ecolo | 5 | 5 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 1–7 |
| Chez Nous | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 24% | 96% | Last Result |
| 20 | 17% | 72% | |
| 21 | 20% | 55% | Median |
| 22 | 19% | 35% | |
| 23 | 14% | 16% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 19 | 12% | 94% | |
| 20 | 43% | 82% | Median |
| 21 | 20% | 39% | |
| 22 | 13% | 18% | |
| 23 | 5% | 6% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98% | |
| 14 | 14% | 94% | |
| 15 | 68% | 80% | Median |
| 16 | 5% | 12% | |
| 17 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 7% | 95% | |
| 13 | 11% | 88% | |
| 14 | 62% | 77% | Median |
| 15 | 12% | 15% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 3 | 7% | 94% | |
| 4 | 6% | 87% | |
| 5 | 69% | 80% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 5% | 12% | |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Chez Nous
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 2 | 15% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 44 | 50 | 100% | 48–52 | 47–52 | 46–53 | 46–53 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 50 | 46 | 100% | 44–48 | 44–48 | 43–49 | 42–49 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 45 | 41 | 99.2% | 39–43 | 39–44 | 38–44 | 37–45 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 48 | 40 | 94% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 41 | 41 | 97% | 39–43 | 38–43 | 37–43 | 37–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 32 | 39 | 90% | 37–41 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 36 | 36 | 15% | 34–38 | 33–38 | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 43 | 35 | 6% | 34–37 | 33–38 | 32–38 | 31–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 27 | 35 | 3% | 33–37 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 31–38 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 31 | 25 | 0% | 23–27 | 23–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 24 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 13 | 19 | 0% | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 14–22 |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 46 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 7% | 97% | |
| 48 | 16% | 90% | |
| 49 | 19% | 74% | |
| 50 | 32% | 55% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 22% | |
| 52 | 7% | 10% | |
| 53 | 3% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 44 | 11% | 97% | |
| 45 | 16% | 86% | |
| 46 | 42% | 70% | Median |
| 47 | 17% | 28% | |
| 48 | 6% | 10% | |
| 49 | 4% | 5% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 39 | 12% | 97% | |
| 40 | 15% | 85% | |
| 41 | 34% | 70% | Median |
| 42 | 20% | 37% | |
| 43 | 9% | 17% | |
| 44 | 6% | 8% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 38 | 9% | 94% | Majority |
| 39 | 20% | 85% | |
| 40 | 26% | 65% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 39% | |
| 42 | 19% | 24% | |
| 43 | 4% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 6% | 97% | Majority |
| 39 | 16% | 91% | |
| 40 | 23% | 75% | |
| 41 | 28% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 42 | 14% | 24% | |
| 43 | 8% | 10% | |
| 44 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 6% | 96% | |
| 38 | 19% | 90% | Majority |
| 39 | 21% | 71% | |
| 40 | 28% | 50% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 22% | |
| 42 | 5% | 7% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 5% | 98% | |
| 34 | 17% | 93% | |
| 35 | 21% | 76% | |
| 36 | 25% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 37 | 16% | 31% | |
| 38 | 12% | 15% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 6% | 97% | |
| 34 | 19% | 91% | |
| 35 | 31% | 72% | Median |
| 36 | 18% | 41% | |
| 37 | 17% | 23% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | Majority |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 6% | 97% | |
| 33 | 20% | 91% | |
| 34 | 18% | 71% | |
| 35 | 24% | 53% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 29% | |
| 37 | 9% | 12% | |
| 38 | 3% | 3% | Majority |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 23 | 9% | 95% | |
| 24 | 15% | 87% | |
| 25 | 34% | 72% | Median |
| 26 | 18% | 38% | |
| 27 | 14% | 20% | |
| 28 | 4% | 5% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 23 | 5% | 97% | |
| 24 | 20% | 92% | Last Result |
| 25 | 20% | 72% | |
| 26 | 24% | 52% | Median |
| 27 | 17% | 29% | |
| 28 | 10% | 12% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 7% | 98% | |
| 17 | 12% | 91% | |
| 18 | 14% | 79% | |
| 19 | 46% | 65% | Median |
| 20 | 12% | 18% | |
| 21 | 6% | 7% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 4–11 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.69%