Opinion Poll by Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB for De Standaard, RTBF and VRT, 3–24 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 23.2% | 24.3% | 23.1–25.6% | 22.7–25.9% | 22.5–26.2% | 21.9–26.9% |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 29.6% | 23.9% | 22.7–25.2% | 22.4–25.6% | 22.1–25.9% | 21.6–26.5% |
| Les Engagés | 20.6% | 20.0% | 18.9–21.2% | 18.6–21.6% | 18.3–21.8% | 17.8–22.4% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 12.1% | 16.6% | 15.6–17.8% | 15.3–18.1% | 15.1–18.4% | 14.6–18.9% |
| Ecolo | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0–7.4% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.3–8.2% |
| Chez Nous | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.7% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.3% |
| DéFI | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste | 19 | 19 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 |
| Mouvement Réformateur | 26 | 20 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–24 |
| Les Engagés | 17 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique | 8 | 14 | 13–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| Ecolo | 5 | 3 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| Chez Nous | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| DéFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 49% | 94% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 18% | 45% | |
| 21 | 11% | 27% | |
| 22 | 10% | 16% | |
| 23 | 7% | 7% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 10% | 98% | |
| 20 | 46% | 88% | Median |
| 21 | 33% | 42% | |
| 22 | 7% | 9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 27% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 18% | 73% | |
| 17 | 30% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 18 | 12% | 25% | |
| 19 | 11% | 13% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 13 | 15% | 93% | |
| 14 | 68% | 78% | Median |
| 15 | 9% | 9% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 22% | 93% | |
| 3 | 22% | 72% | Median |
| 4 | 19% | 50% | |
| 5 | 31% | 31% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Chez Nous
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 40% | |
| 2 | 37% | 38% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 44 | 50 | 100% | 48–52 | 48–53 | 48–53 | 46–54 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 50 | 44 | 100% | 42–46 | 41–46 | 41–47 | 40–47 |
| Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur | 45 | 40 | 98% | 39–43 | 38–43 | 38–44 | 37–45 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 48 | 41 | 97% | 38–42 | 38–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo | 41 | 40 | 97% | 38–42 | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–43 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 32 | 37 | 45% | 35–39 | 34–40 | 34–40 | 33–41 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés | 43 | 37 | 34% | 35–39 | 35–40 | 34–40 | 34–41 |
| Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés | 36 | 36 | 29% | 35–38 | 35–39 | 34–39 | 33–40 |
| Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique | 27 | 33 | 0.5% | 32–36 | 31–37 | 31–37 | 30–37 |
| Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo | 31 | 24 | 0% | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 21–27 |
| Parti Socialiste – Ecolo | 24 | 24 | 0% | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 20–27 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo | 13 | 17 | 0% | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 9% | 98% | |
| 49 | 17% | 89% | |
| 50 | 31% | 73% | Median |
| 51 | 18% | 42% | |
| 52 | 16% | 24% | |
| 53 | 7% | 8% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 8% | 98% | |
| 42 | 13% | 90% | Median |
| 43 | 16% | 77% | |
| 44 | 31% | 61% | |
| 45 | 16% | 30% | |
| 46 | 12% | 15% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 5% | 98% | Majority |
| 39 | 27% | 93% | Median |
| 40 | 26% | 65% | |
| 41 | 20% | 39% | |
| 42 | 8% | 19% | |
| 43 | 8% | 11% | |
| 44 | 3% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 8% | 97% | Majority |
| 39 | 11% | 89% | |
| 40 | 27% | 78% | Median |
| 41 | 20% | 51% | |
| 42 | 27% | 32% | |
| 43 | 3% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 37 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 8% | 97% | Majority |
| 39 | 16% | 89% | Median |
| 40 | 40% | 72% | |
| 41 | 21% | 32% | Last Result |
| 42 | 8% | 11% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 35 | 12% | 95% | |
| 36 | 18% | 83% | Median |
| 37 | 20% | 65% | |
| 38 | 25% | 45% | Majority |
| 39 | 15% | 21% | |
| 40 | 4% | 5% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 34 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 10% | 96% | |
| 36 | 21% | 85% | |
| 37 | 31% | 65% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 34% | Majority |
| 39 | 8% | 17% | |
| 40 | 7% | 9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 20% | 95% | |
| 36 | 28% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 37 | 19% | 48% | |
| 38 | 20% | 29% | Majority |
| 39 | 6% | 9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 31 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 10% | 95% | |
| 33 | 40% | 85% | Median |
| 34 | 18% | 44% | |
| 35 | 13% | 26% | |
| 36 | 7% | 13% | |
| 37 | 5% | 6% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 13% | 95% | |
| 23 | 24% | 82% | Median |
| 24 | 21% | 58% | |
| 25 | 27% | 37% | |
| 26 | 8% | 10% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 11% | 96% | |
| 22 | 13% | 84% | Median |
| 23 | 22% | 72% | |
| 24 | 26% | 50% | Last Result |
| 25 | 16% | 24% | |
| 26 | 5% | 7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 8% | 98% | |
| 16 | 19% | 90% | |
| 17 | 28% | 70% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 42% | |
| 19 | 22% | 23% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard, RTBF and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 3–24 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1988
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.01%