Opinion Poll by Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB for De Standaard, RTBF and VRT, 3–24 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 23.2% 24.3% 23.1–25.6% 22.7–25.9% 22.5–26.2% 21.9–26.9%
Mouvement Réformateur 29.6% 23.9% 22.7–25.2% 22.4–25.6% 22.1–25.9% 21.6–26.5%
Les Engagés 20.6% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.6% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 12.1% 16.6% 15.6–17.8% 15.3–18.1% 15.1–18.4% 14.6–18.9%
Ecolo 7.0% 6.6% 6.0–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.8% 5.3–8.2%
Chez Nous 2.8% 3.2% 2.7–3.7% 2.6–3.9% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.3%
DéFI 2.7% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste 19 19 19–22 18–23 18–23 18–23
Mouvement Réformateur 26 20 19–21 19–22 19–22 18–24
Les Engagés 17 17 15–19 15–19 15–19 15–20
Parti du Travail de Belgique 8 14 13–14 12–15 12–15 11–15
Ecolo 5 3 2–5 1–5 1–5 1–5
Chez Nous 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
DéFI 0 0 0 0 0 0

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 5% 99.5%  
19 49% 94% Last Result, Median
20 18% 45%  
21 11% 27%  
22 10% 16%  
23 7% 7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 10% 98%  
20 46% 88% Median
21 33% 42%  
22 7% 9%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 27% 99.9%  
16 18% 73%  
17 30% 55% Last Result, Median
18 12% 25%  
19 11% 13%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.5% 100%  
12 6% 98.5%  
13 15% 93%  
14 68% 78% Median
15 9% 9%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100%  
2 22% 93%  
3 22% 72% Median
4 19% 50%  
5 31% 31% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Chez Nous

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 40%  
2 37% 38%  
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique 44 50 100% 48–52 48–53 48–53 46–54
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 50 44 100% 42–46 41–46 41–47 40–47
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur 45 40 98% 39–43 38–43 38–44 37–45
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo 48 41 97% 38–42 38–42 37–43 36–44
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo 41 40 97% 38–42 38–42 37–43 37–43
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 32 37 45% 35–39 34–40 34–40 33–41
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés 43 37 34% 35–39 35–40 34–40 34–41
Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés 36 36 29% 35–38 35–39 34–39 33–40
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique 27 33 0.5% 32–36 31–37 31–37 30–37
Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo 31 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–27
Parti Socialiste – Ecolo 24 24 0% 21–25 21–26 20–26 20–27
Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo 13 17 0% 15–19 15–19 15–19 14–20

Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0.5% 100%  
47 2% 99.5%  
48 9% 98%  
49 17% 89%  
50 31% 73% Median
51 18% 42%  
52 16% 24%  
53 7% 8%  
54 1.5% 2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.3% 100%  
40 2% 99.7%  
41 8% 98%  
42 13% 90% Median
43 16% 77%  
44 31% 61%  
45 16% 30%  
46 12% 15%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.4% 100%  
37 2% 99.6%  
38 5% 98% Majority
39 27% 93% Median
40 26% 65%  
41 20% 39%  
42 8% 19%  
43 8% 11%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.7% 100%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 8% 97% Majority
39 11% 89%  
40 27% 78% Median
41 20% 51%  
42 27% 32%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.4% 100%  
37 3% 99.5%  
38 8% 97% Majority
39 16% 89% Median
40 40% 72%  
41 21% 32% Last Result
42 8% 11%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100% Last Result
33 0.9% 99.8%  
34 4% 98.9%  
35 12% 95%  
36 18% 83% Median
37 20% 65%  
38 25% 45% Majority
39 15% 21%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.8% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 4% 99.7%  
35 10% 96%  
36 21% 85%  
37 31% 65% Median
38 17% 34% Majority
39 8% 17%  
40 7% 9%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 4% 99.4%  
35 20% 95%  
36 28% 75% Last Result, Median
37 19% 48%  
38 20% 29% Majority
39 6% 9%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.7% 100%  
31 5% 99.2%  
32 10% 95%  
33 40% 85% Median
34 18% 44%  
35 13% 26%  
36 7% 13%  
37 5% 6%  
38 0.5% 0.5% Majority
39 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 4% 99.5%  
22 13% 95%  
23 24% 82% Median
24 21% 58%  
25 27% 37%  
26 8% 10%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 4% 99.8%  
21 11% 96%  
22 13% 84% Median
23 22% 72%  
24 26% 50% Last Result
25 16% 24%  
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100% Last Result
14 2% 99.5%  
15 8% 98%  
16 19% 90%  
17 28% 70% Median
18 19% 42%  
19 22% 23%  
20 1.3% 1.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations