DéFI
Voting Intentions
Last result: 2.2% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1.5% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
1.8% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1.9% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
1.8% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.2% | 1.7–1.9% | 1.7–1.9% | 1.6–1.9% | 1.5–1.9% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
1.8% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.0% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.4–1.7% | 1.4–1.7% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
2.0% | 1.3–1.5% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% | 1.1–1.6% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1.4% | 1.1–1.2% | 1.0–1.2% | 1.0–1.2% | 0.9–1.2% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1.8% | 1.4–1.5% | 1.3–1.5% | 1.3–1.5% | 1.2–1.5% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.3% | 1.8–2.0% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.6–2.0% |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
2.4% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.6–2.0% | 1.6–2.0% | 1.5–2.0% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.4% | 1.9–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.7–2.1% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.4% | 1.9–2.1% | 1.9–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.7–2.1% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.1% | 1.6–1.8% | 1.6–1.8% | 1.5–1.8% | 1.5–1.8% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1.9% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.4–1.7% | 1.3–1.7% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.1% | 1.6–1.8% | 1.6–1.8% | 1.6–1.8% | 1.5–1.8% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.3% | 1.8–2.0% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.6–2.0% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.4% | 1.9–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.7–2.1% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.0% | 1.6–1.8% | 1.5–1.8% | 1.5–1.8% | 1.4–1.8% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.0% | 1.6–1.7% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.4–1.7% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.0% | 1.6–1.7% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.4–1.7% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
1.7% | 1.0–1.3% | 0.9–1.3% | 0.9–1.3% | 0.7–1.3% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.2% | 1.8–1.9% | 1.7–1.9% | 1.7–1.9% | 1.6–1.9% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.3% | 1.8–2.0% | 1.8–2.0% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.6–2.0% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.4% | 1.8–2.0% | 1.8–2.0% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.6–2.0% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.4% | 1.9–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.7–2.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for DéFI.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 77% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 100% | 23% | Last Result, Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 2% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 2 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
1 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–4 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
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| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 2–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for DéFI.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 93% | 99.3% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |