Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 4–11 March 2025

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 13.8% 16.3% 14.4–15.2% 14.2–15.3% 14.0–15.3% 13.6–15.3%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.7% 16.1% 14.3–15.2% 14.1–15.2% 13.9–15.2% 13.5–15.2%
Parti Socialiste 8.0% 9.4% 8.4–8.8% 8.3–8.8% 8.2–8.8% 8.0–8.8%
Mouvement Réformateur 10.3% 9.2% 8.2–8.6% 8.1–8.6% 8.0–8.6% 7.8–8.6%
Vooruit 8.1% 8.9% 8.0–9.6% 7.8–9.7% 7.6–9.8% 7.2–9.8%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.0% 7.3% 6.5–7.9% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.1%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.6% 5.7–6.1% 5.7–6.1% 5.6–6.1% 5.4–6.1%
Les Engagés 6.8% 6.4% 5.5–5.8% 5.4–5.8% 5.3–5.8% 5.2–5.8%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.1% 6.2% 5.5–6.8% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.0%
Groen 4.6% 4.1% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–4.8%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 5.4% 3.7% 3.2–4.2% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.4%
Ecolo 2.9% 3.2% 2.6–2.8% 2.5–2.8% 2.4–2.8% 2.3–2.8%
DéFI 1.2% 1.2% 0.9–1.0% 0.9–1.0% 0.8–1.0% 0.8–1.0%
Chez Nous 0.9% 0.9% 0.7–0.9% 0.6–0.9% 0.6–1.0% 0.5–1.0%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0–0.1% 0.0–0.1% 0.0–0.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 20 24 23–26 22–27 22–28 21–29
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24 24 22–26 22–27 21–28 21–29
Parti Socialiste 16 18 17–19 17–19 16–20 15–20
Mouvement Réformateur 20 17 17–19 16–19 16–20 15–21
Vooruit 13 13 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–16
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 11 10 10–11 9–12 8–13 7–13
Parti du Travail de Belgique 8 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 10–14
Les Engagés 14 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 9–15
Partij van de Arbeid van België 7 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 5–11
Groen 6 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 1–6
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 7 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–7
Ecolo 3 4 3–5 2–5 2–6 2–6
DéFI 1 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Chez Nous 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team Fouad Ahidar 0 0 0 0 0 0

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
21 0.7% 99.5%  
22 4% 98.8%  
23 19% 95%  
24 32% 75% Median
25 23% 43%  
26 13% 20%  
27 4% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.6% 0.9%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 4% 99.9%  
22 7% 96%  
23 13% 89%  
24 38% 76% Last Result, Median
25 20% 39%  
26 11% 19%  
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.5% 0.7%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.9%  
16 3% 98.9% Last Result
17 17% 96%  
18 49% 79% Median
19 26% 29%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.7%  
16 6% 98%  
17 52% 92% Median
18 29% 40%  
19 7% 11%  
20 3% 4% Last Result
21 0.8% 0.8%  
22 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 4% 98%  
11 6% 94%  
12 14% 88%  
13 43% 74% Last Result, Median
14 26% 31%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.7% 0.9%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.4% 99.8%  
8 3% 99.4%  
9 4% 96%  
10 78% 92% Median
11 7% 14% Last Result
12 4% 7%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.2% 100%  
10 14% 99.8%  
11 17% 85%  
12 45% 68% Median
13 20% 23%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 6% 100%  
10 29% 94%  
11 42% 65% Median
12 13% 24%  
13 7% 11%  
14 3% 4% Last Result
15 0.7% 0.7%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.4% 100%  
6 2% 98.6%  
7 28% 97% Last Result
8 41% 69% Median
9 16% 28%  
10 8% 12%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 1.0% 99.3%  
3 34% 98%  
4 30% 64% Median
5 11% 35%  
6 24% 24% Last Result
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 36% 99.9%  
3 35% 64% Median
4 26% 29%  
5 1.3% 3%  
6 1.1% 2%  
7 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 7% 100%  
3 38% 93% Last Result
4 40% 55% Median
5 12% 15%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 96% 97% Last Result, Median
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Chez Nous

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 90 80 99.1% 78–83 77–84 76–84 75–86
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 78 80 98% 77–82 76–83 76–84 74–85
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 82 76 56% 73–78 72–79 72–80 70–81
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 78 76 68% 74–79 73–80 72–80 71–82
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 76 56% 73–78 72–79 71–80 70–81
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 81 73 6% 70–75 69–76 69–76 67–78
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 76 69 0.3% 67–72 66–73 65–74 64–75
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 76 66 0% 63–68 63–69 62–70 61–71
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo 63 60 0% 57–63 57–63 56–64 54–65
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 60 0% 58–62 57–62 57–63 55–64
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 65 59 0% 57–62 56–63 55–63 54–65
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 53 59 0% 56–61 55–62 55–63 53–64
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 62 55 0% 53–57 52–58 51–59 50–60
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 54 52 0% 50–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 51 0% 49–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 61 49 0% 47–52 46–53 46–53 44–55
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 52 41 0% 40–44 39–44 39–45 37–46

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.8%  
76 2% 99.1% Majority
77 5% 97%  
78 10% 92%  
79 15% 83%  
80 20% 68% Median
81 18% 48%  
82 15% 30%  
83 8% 15%  
84 4% 6%  
85 1.4% 2%  
86 0.5% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.8%  
75 1.3% 99.3%  
76 3% 98% Majority
77 7% 95%  
78 13% 88% Last Result
79 18% 75%  
80 19% 57% Median
81 16% 38%  
82 12% 21%  
83 7% 9%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.5% 0.7%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 1.5% 99.3%  
72 4% 98%  
73 7% 94%  
74 13% 88%  
75 18% 74% Median
76 20% 56% Majority
77 17% 36%  
78 11% 19%  
79 5% 9%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.8% 1.1%  
82 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.9% 99.6%  
72 2% 98.7%  
73 5% 96%  
74 9% 92%  
75 15% 83%  
76 19% 68% Median, Majority
77 19% 49%  
78 15% 29% Last Result
79 9% 14%  
80 4% 6%  
81 1.3% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.7%  
71 2% 99.1%  
72 4% 97%  
73 8% 93%  
74 13% 86%  
75 17% 73% Median
76 19% 56% Majority
77 16% 36%  
78 11% 20%  
79 6% 9%  
80 2% 4% Last Result
81 0.9% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.3%  
69 4% 98%  
70 8% 94%  
71 14% 86%  
72 21% 72% Median
73 21% 51%  
74 15% 30%  
75 9% 15%  
76 4% 6% Majority
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 1.0% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.5%  
66 5% 96%  
67 10% 91%  
68 14% 81%  
69 18% 67% Median
70 18% 49%  
71 14% 31%  
72 9% 17%  
73 5% 8%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 1.0%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.7%  
62 3% 98.7%  
63 7% 96%  
64 15% 89%  
65 19% 73% Median
66 17% 55%  
67 17% 37%  
68 11% 21%  
69 6% 10%  
70 3% 4%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 1.2% 99.4%  
56 3% 98%  
57 7% 95%  
58 13% 88%  
59 17% 75%  
60 18% 57% Median
61 16% 40%  
62 12% 24%  
63 7% 12% Last Result
64 3% 4%  
65 1.1% 1.4%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.5%  
57 6% 98%  
58 16% 91%  
59 24% 75% Median
60 23% 51%  
61 16% 28%  
62 8% 12%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.9% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.6%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 5% 96%  
57 10% 91%  
58 16% 81%  
59 19% 65% Median
60 18% 46%  
61 14% 29%  
62 8% 15%  
63 4% 7%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
54 2% 99.2%  
55 4% 98%  
56 7% 94%  
57 13% 87%  
58 18% 73%  
59 19% 55% Median
60 15% 36%  
61 11% 21%  
62 7% 9%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.6% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 3% 99.0%  
52 6% 96%  
53 15% 90%  
54 20% 75% Median
55 17% 55%  
56 17% 37%  
57 12% 20%  
58 5% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.9% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
63 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.7%  
48 2% 98.8%  
49 5% 97%  
50 10% 92%  
51 18% 82%  
52 24% 65% Median
53 21% 41%  
54 12% 20% Last Result
55 5% 8%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 4% 97%  
49 8% 93%  
50 15% 86%  
51 21% 71% Median
52 22% 50%  
53 15% 28%  
54 8% 13%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.2% 2% Last Result
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 5% 98%  
47 10% 93%  
48 16% 84%  
49 20% 68% Median
50 20% 48%  
51 14% 28%  
52 8% 14%  
53 4% 6%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.5%  
39 7% 98%  
40 19% 91%  
41 24% 72% Median
42 22% 48%  
43 14% 26%  
44 7% 12%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations