Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 16–23 September 2025

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 13.8% 16.9% 15.1–15.9% 14.9–16.0% 14.7–16.0% 14.3–16.0%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.7% 14.8% 13.0–13.9% 12.8–13.9% 12.6–13.9% 12.3–13.9%
Parti Socialiste 8.0% 9.7% 8.6–9.0% 8.5–9.0% 8.4–9.1% 8.2–9.1%
Mouvement Réformateur 10.3% 8.6% 7.6–8.0% 7.5–8.0% 7.4–8.0% 7.2–8.0%
Vooruit 8.1% 8.5% 7.6–9.1% 7.4–9.2% 7.2–9.3% 6.8–9.4%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.0% 8.3% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.1% 7.1–9.2% 6.7–9.2%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 7.2% 6.3–6.6% 6.2–6.6% 6.1–6.7% 5.9–6.7%
Les Engagés 6.8% 6.3% 5.4–5.8% 5.3–5.8% 5.3–5.8% 5.1–5.8%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.1% 5.7% 5.0–6.2% 4.8–6.3% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.4%
Groen 4.6% 4.5% 3.9–5.0% 3.8–5.1% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.2%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 5.4% 3.5% 3.0–4.0% 2.9–4.1% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.2%
Ecolo 2.9% 3.2% 2.6–2.9% 2.6–2.9% 2.5–2.9% 2.4–2.9%
DéFI 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–0.8% 0.7–0.8% 0.6–0.8% 0.6–0.8%
Chez Nous 0.9% 0.9% 0.7–0.9% 0.6–0.9% 0.6–1.0% 0.5–1.0%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 20 26 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24 22 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26
Parti Socialiste 16 19 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Mouvement Réformateur 20 16 15–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vooruit 13 13 10–14 9–14 9–14 9–15
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 11 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Parti du Travail de Belgique 8 13 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–16
Les Engagés 14 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–14
Partij van de Arbeid van België 7 7 5–9 5–9 5–9 5–11
Groen 6 6 4–6 3–6 3–6 3–8
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 7 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–6
Ecolo 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 2–7
DéFI 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Chez Nous 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team Fouad Ahidar 0 0 0 0 0 0

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.8%  
23 4% 98.7%  
24 18% 95%  
25 22% 77%  
26 25% 55% Median
27 14% 30%  
28 8% 16%  
29 5% 8%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 0.7% 99.5%  
20 2% 98.8%  
21 37% 97%  
22 17% 59% Median
23 16% 42%  
24 20% 26% Last Result
25 5% 6%  
26 0.9% 1.3%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 2% 99.6% Last Result
17 7% 98%  
18 35% 91%  
19 40% 56% Median
20 15% 16%  
21 1.0% 1.0%  
22 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.9% 100%  
14 5% 99.1%  
15 18% 95%  
16 47% 77% Median
17 25% 30%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.7% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 8% 100%  
10 6% 92%  
11 11% 86%  
12 15% 74%  
13 38% 59% Last Result, Median
14 20% 21%  
15 1.1% 1.3%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 30% 99.9%  
11 14% 70% Last Result
12 19% 56% Median
13 28% 37%  
14 7% 9%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 5% 99.7%  
12 11% 95%  
13 47% 84% Median
14 29% 37%  
15 7% 8%  
16 0.8% 0.9%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 3% 100%  
10 23% 97%  
11 57% 74% Median
12 11% 17%  
13 5% 6%  
14 1.3% 2% Last Result
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 10% 100%  
6 8% 90%  
7 41% 81% Last Result, Median
8 30% 40%  
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 9% 99.9%  
4 25% 91%  
5 9% 66%  
6 56% 57% Last Result, Median
7 0.8% 1.3%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 55% 99.8% Median
3 28% 44%  
4 15% 17%  
5 0.7% 2%  
6 0.7% 1.0%  
7 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 37% 99.3% Last Result
4 48% 62% Median
5 12% 14%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 9% 9% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Chez Nous

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 78 83 99.9% 80–86 79–87 79–87 77–89
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 90 81 99.5% 78–84 78–85 77–85 76–87
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 78 76 60% 73–79 72–79 71–80 70–82
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 82 73 16% 70–76 70–77 69–78 68–79
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 81 72 7% 70–75 69–76 68–76 67–78
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 72 5% 69–75 68–76 67–76 66–78
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 76 70 0.9% 67–73 66–74 66–75 64–76
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 76 64 0% 61–66 61–67 60–68 59–70
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo 63 63 0% 60–66 59–66 58–67 57–68
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 60 0% 58–62 57–63 56–64 56–65
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 53 60 0% 57–63 57–64 56–64 54–65
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 65 59 0% 56–61 55–62 54–63 52–64
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 54 54 0% 51–56 50–57 49–58 48–59
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 62 53 0% 50–55 50–56 49–57 48–58
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 61 50 0% 48–53 47–54 46–55 45–56
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 50 0% 47–52 46–53 45–53 44–55
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 52 41 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 37–47

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Les Engagés – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9% Majority
77 0.5% 99.8%  
78 1.5% 99.2% Last Result
79 4% 98%  
80 7% 94%  
81 12% 87%  
82 15% 75%  
83 16% 60%  
84 16% 44%  
85 13% 28% Median
86 8% 15%  
87 4% 6%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.9%  
76 1.2% 99.5% Majority
77 3% 98%  
78 6% 95%  
79 10% 90%  
80 15% 79%  
81 17% 64%  
82 17% 47%  
83 13% 30% Median
84 9% 17%  
85 5% 7%  
86 2% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.8%  
71 2% 99.1%  
72 4% 97%  
73 7% 93%  
74 11% 86%  
75 15% 75%  
76 18% 60% Majority
77 18% 42% Median
78 13% 24% Last Result
79 7% 11%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.3% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 1.1% 99.6%  
69 3% 98%  
70 6% 96%  
71 9% 90%  
72 13% 81%  
73 17% 67%  
74 19% 50% Median
75 15% 31%  
76 9% 16% Majority
77 4% 7%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.7% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 1.0% 99.6%  
68 2% 98.6%  
69 5% 96%  
70 10% 91%  
71 15% 81%  
72 18% 65%  
73 17% 48% Median
74 14% 31%  
75 10% 16%  
76 5% 7% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.7% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 4% 97%  
69 7% 93%  
70 11% 86%  
71 16% 75%  
72 18% 59% Median
73 16% 40%  
74 12% 24%  
75 7% 13%  
76 4% 5% Majority
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 1.4% 99.3%  
66 3% 98%  
67 6% 95%  
68 10% 89%  
69 14% 79%  
70 17% 64%  
71 16% 48%  
72 13% 31% Median
73 9% 18%  
74 5% 9%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.7% 0.9% Last Result, Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 1.1% 99.6%  
60 3% 98%  
61 8% 95%  
62 15% 87%  
63 21% 72% Median
64 19% 51%  
65 14% 33%  
66 9% 19%  
67 5% 10%  
68 3% 4%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.9% 99.6%  
58 3% 98.7%  
59 5% 96%  
60 9% 91%  
61 13% 82%  
62 17% 69%  
63 17% 52% Last Result
64 14% 35%  
65 10% 21% Median
66 6% 11%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.9% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.6%  
57 7% 97%  
58 12% 91%  
59 17% 78%  
60 20% 61% Median
61 19% 41%  
62 12% 21%  
63 6% 9%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.8% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100% Last Result
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 1.3% 99.4%  
56 3% 98%  
57 6% 95%  
58 9% 89%  
59 13% 80%  
60 17% 66%  
61 17% 50%  
62 15% 32% Median
63 10% 17%  
64 5% 7%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 1.1% 99.5%  
54 2% 98%  
55 5% 96%  
56 9% 91%  
57 13% 82%  
58 16% 70%  
59 18% 54%  
60 16% 36% Median
61 11% 20%  
62 6% 9%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.9% 99.7%  
49 2% 98.8%  
50 4% 97%  
51 8% 93%  
52 14% 85%  
53 18% 71%  
54 18% 53% Last Result
55 15% 35% Median
56 11% 20%  
57 6% 9%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.1% 99.6%  
49 3% 98.5%  
50 7% 95%  
51 15% 88%  
52 21% 73% Median
53 19% 52%  
54 14% 33%  
55 9% 19%  
56 6% 9%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.0% 1.4%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0% Last Result

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.7% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.1%  
47 5% 97%  
48 11% 92%  
49 16% 81%  
50 18% 65%  
51 17% 47% Median
52 14% 30%  
53 9% 15%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.7% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.7% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.2%  
46 4% 97%  
47 8% 93%  
48 12% 85%  
49 17% 73%  
50 20% 56% Median
51 18% 35%  
52 11% 17%  
53 5% 7%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 1.0% 99.9%  
38 4% 98.8%  
39 11% 94%  
40 15% 83%  
41 20% 69% Median
42 22% 49%  
43 14% 27%  
44 7% 13%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations