Opinion Poll by Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB for De Standaard, RTBF and VRT, 3–24 March 2025

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.7% 17.1% 15.8–16.4% 15.7–16.4% 15.5–16.4% 15.2–16.4%
Vlaams Belang 13.8% 13.0% 11.8–12.3% 11.7–12.4% 11.6–12.4% 11.3–12.4%
Vooruit 8.1% 9.2% 8.6–9.6% 8.4–9.7% 8.3–9.8% 8.0–9.8%
Mouvement Réformateur 10.3% 9.0% 8.2–8.5% 8.2–8.5% 8.1–8.5% 8.0–8.5%
Parti Socialiste 8.0% 8.8% 8.1–8.4% 8.0–8.4% 8.0–8.4% 7.8–8.4%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.0% 8.5% 7.9–8.9% 7.8–9.0% 7.6–9.0% 7.4–9.1%
Les Engagés 6.8% 6.9% 6.2–6.5% 6.2–6.5% 6.1–6.5% 6.0–6.5%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.4% 5.8–6.1% 5.8–6.1% 5.7–6.1% 5.6–6.1%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.1% 5.6% 5.1–5.9% 5.0–6.0% 4.8–6.0% 4.6–6.1%
Groen 4.6% 4.6% 4.1–4.9% 4.0–5.0% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.0%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 5.4% 3.5% 3.2–3.8% 3.1–3.9% 3.0–3.9% 2.8–3.9%
Ecolo 2.9% 2.9% 2.5–2.6% 2.5–2.7% 2.4–2.7% 2.3–2.7%
DéFI 1.2% 1.1% 0.9–1.0% 0.8–1.0% 0.8–1.0% 0.8–1.0%
Chez Nous 0.9% 1.0% 0.9–1.1% 0.8–1.1% 0.8–1.1% 0.7–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24 27 25–28 24–29 24–29 24–30
Vlaams Belang 20 20 18–21 18–21 17–22 16–23
Vooruit 13 14 13–14 13–15 12–15 11–15
Mouvement Réformateur 20 17 17–18 16–18 16–18 16–19
Parti Socialiste 16 17 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 11 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Les Engagés 14 13 12–15 11–15 11–15 11–15
Parti du Travail de Belgique 8 12 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–14
Partij van de Arbeid van België 7 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Groen 6 6 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 7 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ecolo 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
DéFI 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Chez Nous 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 6% 99.6% Last Result
25 9% 94%  
26 26% 85%  
27 38% 59% Median
28 14% 21%  
29 6% 7%  
30 0.9% 1.0%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 1.0% 100%  
17 3% 99.0%  
18 16% 96%  
19 29% 79%  
20 40% 51% Last Result, Median
21 7% 11%  
22 3% 4%  
23 1.0% 1.0%  
24 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.2%  
13 45% 97% Last Result
14 46% 52% Median
15 6% 6%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 5% 99.7%  
17 61% 95% Median
18 33% 34%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.9%  
16 12% 98.7% Last Result
17 55% 87% Median
18 25% 31%  
19 7% 7%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 13% 100%  
11 15% 87% Last Result
12 28% 72% Median
13 39% 44%  
14 4% 5%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 5% 99.9%  
12 18% 95%  
13 33% 76% Median
14 32% 43% Last Result
15 11% 11%  
16 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 5% 100%  
11 23% 95%  
12 40% 73% Median
13 31% 32%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100%  
6 14% 95%  
7 53% 80% Last Result, Median
8 26% 27%  
9 0.8% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 16% 98%  
5 8% 82%  
6 74% 74% Last Result, Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 39% 100%  
3 46% 61% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 86% 100% Last Result, Median
4 13% 14%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Chez Nous

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 90 85 100% 83–87 82–87 82–88 81–89
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 78 84 100% 82–86 82–86 81–87 80–88
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 78 83 100% 81–85 80–86 80–86 79–87
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 82 83 100% 81–85 80–86 79–86 78–87
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 78 88% 75–80 75–80 74–81 73–82
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 81 76 68% 74–78 73–79 73–79 72–80
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 76 72 2% 70–74 69–75 69–75 67–76
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 76 72 0.9% 69–74 69–74 68–75 67–76
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo 63 65 0% 63–67 62–67 62–68 61–69
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 63 0% 61–64 60–65 60–65 59–67
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 62 59 0% 57–61 56–61 56–62 55–62
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 65 60 0% 58–61 57–62 56–62 55–63
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 53 59 0% 56–61 56–61 55–62 54–63
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 54 56 0% 54–58 53–59 53–59 52–60
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 61 54 0% 52–56 51–57 51–57 50–58
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 51 0% 49–53 49–53 48–54 48–54
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 52 45 0% 43–47 43–48 42–48 41–50

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.2% 100%  
81 2% 99.7%  
82 6% 98%  
83 12% 92%  
84 20% 80%  
85 25% 60% Median
86 20% 35%  
87 11% 15%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.7% 0.9%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
91 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100% Last Result
79 0.2% 100%  
80 1.0% 99.8%  
81 4% 98.8%  
82 13% 95%  
83 25% 83%  
84 26% 58% Median
85 18% 32%  
86 9% 14%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.7% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
79 2% 99.5%  
80 6% 98%  
81 14% 91%  
82 21% 77%  
83 22% 56% Median
84 18% 33%  
85 10% 16%  
86 4% 5%  
87 1.0% 1.2%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.6% 99.9%  
79 2% 99.2%  
80 7% 97%  
81 13% 90%  
82 19% 77% Last Result
83 21% 57% Median
84 18% 36%  
85 11% 19%  
86 5% 7%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.8% 99.9%  
74 3% 99.0%  
75 8% 96%  
76 15% 88% Majority
77 23% 74%  
78 23% 51% Median
79 16% 27%  
80 8% 11% Last Result
81 3% 4%  
82 0.7% 0.8%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 1.1% 99.8%  
73 4% 98.7%  
74 9% 95%  
75 18% 86%  
76 25% 68% Median, Majority
77 23% 42%  
78 13% 20%  
79 5% 7%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
82 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 2% 99.4%  
69 5% 98%  
70 11% 93%  
71 19% 82%  
72 23% 63% Median
73 19% 40%  
74 12% 21%  
75 6% 8%  
76 2% 2% Last Result, Majority
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.5% 99.9%  
68 3% 99.4%  
69 7% 97%  
70 14% 89%  
71 22% 76%  
72 24% 54% Median
73 18% 30%  
74 9% 12%  
75 3% 4%  
76 0.7% 0.9% Last Result, Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 1.5% 99.7%  
62 6% 98%  
63 14% 92% Last Result
64 21% 78%  
65 23% 58% Median
66 19% 34%  
67 10% 15%  
68 4% 4%  
69 0.7% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 2% 99.7%  
60 6% 98%  
61 12% 92%  
62 24% 80% Median
63 28% 55%  
64 17% 27%  
65 7% 9%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
69 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 1.2% 99.7%  
56 4% 98.5%  
57 12% 94%  
58 26% 83%  
59 25% 57% Median
60 18% 32%  
61 10% 14%  
62 3% 3% Last Result
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.3%  
57 6% 97%  
58 14% 91%  
59 25% 77%  
60 26% 52% Median
61 17% 26%  
62 7% 9%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100% Last Result
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 3% 99.4%  
56 8% 97%  
57 16% 88%  
58 22% 73%  
59 22% 51% Median
60 16% 28%  
61 8% 12%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.5% 0.6%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.9% 99.9%  
53 5% 99.0%  
54 11% 94% Last Result
55 17% 84%  
56 24% 66% Median
57 23% 42%  
58 13% 19%  
59 4% 5%  
60 0.9% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 1.4% 99.7%  
51 5% 98%  
52 10% 94%  
53 18% 83%  
54 23% 65% Median
55 22% 41%  
56 13% 19%  
57 5% 6%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 3% 99.6%  
49 12% 97%  
50 26% 85%  
51 29% 59% Median
52 19% 30%  
53 8% 11%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.4% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.9% 99.9%  
42 3% 98.9%  
43 8% 96%  
44 16% 88%  
45 23% 72% Median
46 25% 49%  
47 16% 24%  
48 6% 9%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations