Opinion Poll by Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB for De Standaard, RTBF and VRT, 3–24 March 2025
Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie |
16.7% |
17.1% |
15.8–16.4% |
15.7–16.4% |
15.5–16.4% |
15.2–16.4% |
Vlaams Belang |
13.8% |
13.0% |
11.8–12.3% |
11.7–12.4% |
11.6–12.4% |
11.3–12.4% |
Vooruit |
8.1% |
9.2% |
8.6–9.6% |
8.4–9.7% |
8.3–9.8% |
8.0–9.8% |
Mouvement Réformateur |
10.3% |
9.0% |
8.2–8.5% |
8.2–8.5% |
8.1–8.5% |
8.0–8.5% |
Parti Socialiste |
8.0% |
8.8% |
8.1–8.4% |
8.0–8.4% |
8.0–8.4% |
7.8–8.4% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams |
8.0% |
8.5% |
7.9–8.9% |
7.8–9.0% |
7.6–9.0% |
7.4–9.1% |
Les Engagés |
6.8% |
6.9% |
6.2–6.5% |
6.2–6.5% |
6.1–6.5% |
6.0–6.5% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique |
4.8% |
6.4% |
5.8–6.1% |
5.8–6.1% |
5.7–6.1% |
5.6–6.1% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België |
5.1% |
5.6% |
5.1–5.9% |
5.0–6.0% |
4.8–6.0% |
4.6–6.1% |
Groen |
4.6% |
4.6% |
4.1–4.9% |
4.0–5.0% |
3.9–5.0% |
3.7–5.0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
5.4% |
3.5% |
3.2–3.8% |
3.1–3.9% |
3.0–3.9% |
2.8–3.9% |
Ecolo |
2.9% |
2.9% |
2.5–2.6% |
2.5–2.7% |
2.4–2.7% |
2.3–2.7% |
DéFI |
1.2% |
1.1% |
0.9–1.0% |
0.8–1.0% |
0.8–1.0% |
0.8–1.0% |
Chez Nous |
0.9% |
1.0% |
0.9–1.1% |
0.8–1.1% |
0.8–1.1% |
0.7–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
24 |
6% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
25 |
9% |
94% |
|
26 |
26% |
85% |
|
27 |
38% |
59% |
Median |
28 |
14% |
21% |
|
29 |
6% |
7% |
|
30 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
17 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
18 |
16% |
96% |
|
19 |
29% |
79% |
|
20 |
40% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
7% |
11% |
|
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
13 |
45% |
97% |
Last Result |
14 |
46% |
52% |
Median |
15 |
6% |
6% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
61% |
95% |
Median |
18 |
33% |
34% |
|
19 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Parti Socialiste
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
12% |
98.7% |
Last Result |
17 |
55% |
87% |
Median |
18 |
25% |
31% |
|
19 |
7% |
7% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
13% |
100% |
|
11 |
15% |
87% |
Last Result |
12 |
28% |
72% |
Median |
13 |
39% |
44% |
|
14 |
4% |
5% |
|
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Les Engagés
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
18% |
95% |
|
13 |
33% |
76% |
Median |
14 |
32% |
43% |
Last Result |
15 |
11% |
11% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Parti du Travail de Belgique
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
5% |
100% |
|
11 |
23% |
95% |
|
12 |
40% |
73% |
Median |
13 |
31% |
32% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid van België
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
5% |
100% |
|
6 |
14% |
95% |
|
7 |
53% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
26% |
27% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
2% |
100% |
|
4 |
16% |
98% |
|
5 |
8% |
82% |
|
6 |
74% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
39% |
100% |
|
3 |
46% |
61% |
Median |
4 |
15% |
15% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Ecolo
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
86% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
13% |
14% |
|
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
DéFI
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chez Nous
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo |
90 |
85 |
100% |
83–87 |
82–87 |
82–88 |
81–89 |
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo |
78 |
84 |
100% |
82–86 |
82–86 |
81–87 |
80–88 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés |
78 |
83 |
100% |
81–85 |
80–86 |
80–86 |
79–87 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés |
82 |
83 |
100% |
81–85 |
80–86 |
79–86 |
78–87 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
80 |
78 |
88% |
75–80 |
75–80 |
74–81 |
73–82 |
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
81 |
76 |
68% |
74–78 |
73–79 |
73–79 |
72–80 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
76 |
72 |
2% |
70–74 |
69–75 |
69–75 |
67–76 |
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo |
76 |
72 |
0.9% |
69–74 |
69–74 |
68–75 |
67–76 |
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo |
63 |
65 |
0% |
63–67 |
62–67 |
62–68 |
61–69 |
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
68 |
63 |
0% |
61–64 |
60–65 |
60–65 |
59–67 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
62 |
59 |
0% |
57–61 |
56–61 |
56–62 |
55–62 |
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo |
65 |
60 |
0% |
58–61 |
57–62 |
56–62 |
55–63 |
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo |
53 |
59 |
0% |
56–61 |
56–61 |
55–62 |
54–63 |
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés |
54 |
56 |
0% |
54–58 |
53–59 |
53–59 |
52–60 |
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo |
61 |
54 |
0% |
52–56 |
51–57 |
51–57 |
50–58 |
Vooruit – Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
56 |
51 |
0% |
49–53 |
49–53 |
48–54 |
48–54 |
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
52 |
45 |
0% |
43–47 |
43–48 |
42–48 |
41–50 |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
80 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
81 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
82 |
6% |
98% |
|
83 |
12% |
92% |
|
84 |
20% |
80% |
|
85 |
25% |
60% |
Median |
86 |
20% |
35% |
|
87 |
11% |
15% |
|
88 |
3% |
4% |
|
89 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
79 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
80 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
81 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
82 |
13% |
95% |
|
83 |
25% |
83% |
|
84 |
26% |
58% |
Median |
85 |
18% |
32% |
|
86 |
9% |
14% |
|
87 |
3% |
4% |
|
88 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
77 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
78 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
79 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
80 |
6% |
98% |
|
81 |
14% |
91% |
|
82 |
21% |
77% |
|
83 |
22% |
56% |
Median |
84 |
18% |
33% |
|
85 |
10% |
16% |
|
86 |
4% |
5% |
|
87 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
88 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
77 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
78 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
79 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
80 |
7% |
97% |
|
81 |
13% |
90% |
|
82 |
19% |
77% |
Last Result |
83 |
21% |
57% |
Median |
84 |
18% |
36% |
|
85 |
11% |
19% |
|
86 |
5% |
7% |
|
87 |
2% |
2% |
|
88 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
89 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
73 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
75 |
8% |
96% |
|
76 |
15% |
88% |
Majority |
77 |
23% |
74% |
|
78 |
23% |
51% |
Median |
79 |
16% |
27% |
|
80 |
8% |
11% |
Last Result |
81 |
3% |
4% |
|
82 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
72 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
73 |
4% |
98.7% |
|
74 |
9% |
95% |
|
75 |
18% |
86% |
|
76 |
25% |
68% |
Median, Majority |
77 |
23% |
42% |
|
78 |
13% |
20% |
|
79 |
5% |
7% |
|
80 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
81 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
82 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
66 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
67 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
68 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
69 |
5% |
98% |
|
70 |
11% |
93% |
|
71 |
19% |
82% |
|
72 |
23% |
63% |
Median |
73 |
19% |
40% |
|
74 |
12% |
21% |
|
75 |
6% |
8% |
|
76 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result, Majority |
77 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
78 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
66 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
67 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
68 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
69 |
7% |
97% |
|
70 |
14% |
89% |
|
71 |
22% |
76% |
|
72 |
24% |
54% |
Median |
73 |
18% |
30% |
|
74 |
9% |
12% |
|
75 |
3% |
4% |
|
76 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
Last Result, Majority |
77 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
61 |
1.5% |
99.7% |
|
62 |
6% |
98% |
|
63 |
14% |
92% |
Last Result |
64 |
21% |
78% |
|
65 |
23% |
58% |
Median |
66 |
19% |
34% |
|
67 |
10% |
15% |
|
68 |
4% |
4% |
|
69 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
59 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
60 |
6% |
98% |
|
61 |
12% |
92% |
|
62 |
24% |
80% |
Median |
63 |
28% |
55% |
|
64 |
17% |
27% |
|
65 |
7% |
9% |
|
66 |
2% |
2% |
|
67 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
69 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
55 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
56 |
4% |
98.5% |
|
57 |
12% |
94% |
|
58 |
26% |
83% |
|
59 |
25% |
57% |
Median |
60 |
18% |
32% |
|
61 |
10% |
14% |
|
62 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
63 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
57 |
6% |
97% |
|
58 |
14% |
91% |
|
59 |
25% |
77% |
|
60 |
26% |
52% |
Median |
61 |
17% |
26% |
|
62 |
7% |
9% |
|
63 |
2% |
2% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
54 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
55 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
56 |
8% |
97% |
|
57 |
16% |
88% |
|
58 |
22% |
73% |
|
59 |
22% |
51% |
Median |
60 |
16% |
28% |
|
61 |
8% |
12% |
|
62 |
3% |
3% |
|
63 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
54 |
11% |
94% |
Last Result |
55 |
17% |
84% |
|
56 |
24% |
66% |
Median |
57 |
23% |
42% |
|
58 |
13% |
19% |
|
59 |
4% |
5% |
|
60 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
50 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
51 |
5% |
98% |
|
52 |
10% |
94% |
|
53 |
18% |
83% |
|
54 |
23% |
65% |
Median |
55 |
22% |
41% |
|
56 |
13% |
19% |
|
57 |
5% |
6% |
|
58 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
12% |
97% |
|
50 |
26% |
85% |
|
51 |
29% |
59% |
Median |
52 |
19% |
30% |
|
53 |
8% |
11% |
|
54 |
2% |
3% |
|
55 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
57 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
43 |
8% |
96% |
|
44 |
16% |
88% |
|
45 |
23% |
72% |
Median |
46 |
25% |
49% |
|
47 |
16% |
24% |
|
48 |
6% |
9% |
|
49 |
2% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard, RTBF and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 3–24 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 3527
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.79%