Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 18–21 November 2024

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.7% 15.6% 13.7–14.6% 13.5–14.6% 13.4–14.6% 13.0–14.6%
Vlaams Belang 13.8% 14.7% 13.0–13.8% 12.8–13.8% 12.6–13.8% 12.2–13.8%
Mouvement Réformateur 10.3% 9.8% 8.8–9.2% 8.7–9.2% 8.6–9.2% 8.4–9.2%
Vooruit 8.1% 9.6% 8.8–10.3% 8.5–10.5% 8.3–10.5% 7.9–10.6%
Parti Socialiste 8.0% 9.1% 8.1–8.5% 8.0–8.5% 7.9–8.5% 7.7–8.5%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.0% 8.3% 7.4–8.9% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.2%
Les Engagés 6.8% 6.8% 5.9–6.2% 5.8–6.2% 5.7–6.3% 5.5–6.3%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 5.5% 4.7–5.0% 4.6–5.0% 4.6–5.0% 4.4–5.0%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.1% 4.9% 4.3–5.4% 4.1–5.5% 4.0–5.6% 3.7–5.6%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 5.4% 4.5% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.1% 3.6–5.1% 3.3–5.2%
Groen 4.6% 4.3% 3.7–4.8% 3.5–4.9% 3.4–4.9% 3.1–5.0%
Ecolo 2.9% 3.5% 2.8–3.1% 2.8–3.1% 2.7–3.1% 2.6–3.1%
DéFI 1.2% 1.2% 0.8–1.0% 0.8–1.0% 0.8–1.0% 0.7–1.0%
Chez Nous 0.9% 0.9% 0.7–0.9% 0.6–0.9% 0.6–1.0% 0.5–1.0%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.4% 0.2% 0.1–0.2% 0.1–0.2% 0.1–0.2% 0.1–0.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24 24 22–25 21–26 21–27 20–28
Vlaams Belang 20 23 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26
Mouvement Réformateur 20 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 16–22
Vooruit 13 14 13–16 13–16 12–17 10–17
Parti Socialiste 16 17 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 11 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 10–15
Les Engagés 14 13 10–14 9–14 9–14 9–15
Parti du Travail de Belgique 8 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Partij van de Arbeid van België 7 5 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 7 4 3–7 3–7 2–7 2–7
Groen 6 5 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
Ecolo 3 4 3–6 3–6 3–7 3–8
DéFI 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Chez Nous 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team Fouad Ahidar 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 9% 98.9%  
22 9% 90%  
23 22% 81%  
24 39% 59% Last Result, Median
25 12% 19%  
26 5% 8%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 3% 99.3%  
20 7% 97% Last Result
21 9% 90%  
22 29% 81%  
23 24% 51% Median
24 17% 27%  
25 8% 9%  
26 1.1% 1.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 6% 100%  
17 32% 94%  
18 24% 61% Median
19 12% 38%  
20 16% 25% Last Result
21 9% 10%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 0.8% 99.4%  
12 3% 98.6%  
13 27% 96% Last Result
14 42% 69% Median
15 15% 27%  
16 9% 12%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.8%  
15 5% 99.1%  
16 10% 94% Last Result
17 46% 85% Median
18 27% 39%  
19 9% 11%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.8%  
10 30% 99.6%  
11 16% 69% Last Result
12 20% 53% Median
13 29% 33%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.9% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 7% 99.9%  
10 9% 93%  
11 14% 84%  
12 17% 69%  
13 16% 52% Median
14 34% 36% Last Result
15 1.5% 1.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 7% 99.5% Last Result
9 26% 93%  
10 42% 67% Median
11 23% 25%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 52% 99.7% Median
6 11% 48%  
7 32% 37% Last Result
8 5% 5%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 12% 97%  
4 45% 85% Median
5 13% 40%  
6 13% 26%  
7 13% 13% Last Result
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.8%  
3 21% 99.6%  
4 28% 79%  
5 10% 51% Median
6 41% 41% Last Result
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 12% 100% Last Result
4 48% 88% Median
5 29% 40%  
6 7% 11%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 76% 76% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Chez Nous

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 90 87 100% 85–90 84–91 83–92 82–93
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 78 80 97% 77–83 76–84 75–85 74–86
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 82 80 97% 77–83 76–84 75–84 74–86
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 78 79 92% 76–82 75–83 74–84 73–85
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 78 83% 75–81 74–82 73–83 72–85
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 81 78 89% 75–81 75–82 74–82 72–84
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 76 75 41% 72–78 71–79 70–80 69–82
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 76 70 2% 67–74 67–74 66–75 64–76
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo 63 65 0% 61–68 60–68 60–69 58–70
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 64 0% 61–67 61–68 60–69 59–70
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 65 63 0% 60–67 59–68 59–69 58–70
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 62 58 0% 55–61 54–62 54–63 53–65
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 61 56 0% 53–59 52–60 52–61 50–62
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 53 56 0% 53–59 52–60 52–61 51–62
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés 54 55 0% 52–58 51–59 51–60 49–61
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 54 0% 51–57 51–58 50–59 49–61
Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 52 47 0% 44–50 43–51 43–51 41–52

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.3% 100%  
82 0.9% 99.7%  
83 2% 98.8%  
84 5% 97%  
85 10% 92%  
86 16% 81%  
87 19% 65% Median
88 18% 46%  
89 13% 28%  
90 8% 15% Last Result
91 4% 7%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.7% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.8%  
75 2% 99.3%  
76 4% 97% Majority
77 7% 93%  
78 10% 87% Last Result
79 15% 76%  
80 16% 61% Median
81 15% 46%  
82 13% 31%  
83 10% 18%  
84 5% 8%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.7% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.8% 99.6%  
75 2% 98.9%  
76 4% 97% Majority
77 8% 93%  
78 12% 85%  
79 16% 73%  
80 18% 58%  
81 16% 40% Median
82 12% 24% Last Result
83 6% 12%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.3% 2%  
86 0.5% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.9% 99.5%  
74 2% 98.6%  
75 5% 96%  
76 8% 92% Majority
77 12% 84%  
78 15% 72% Last Result
79 16% 57%  
80 15% 41% Median
81 12% 26%  
82 7% 14%  
83 4% 6%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 0.9%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.8%  
73 2% 99.1%  
74 5% 97%  
75 10% 92%  
76 14% 83% Majority
77 16% 69% Median
78 16% 53%  
79 13% 37%  
80 10% 24% Last Result
81 7% 14%  
82 4% 8%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 1.4%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 1.2% 99.5%  
74 3% 98%  
75 6% 95%  
76 11% 89% Majority
77 16% 78%  
78 18% 63% Median
79 17% 44%  
80 13% 28%  
81 8% 15% Last Result
82 4% 7%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.8% 99.6%  
70 2% 98.8%  
71 5% 97%  
72 9% 92%  
73 12% 83%  
74 15% 71% Median
75 15% 56%  
76 13% 41% Last Result, Majority
77 11% 28%  
78 8% 17%  
79 5% 9%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.5% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 1.2% 99.4%  
66 3% 98%  
67 6% 95%  
68 10% 89%  
69 14% 79%  
70 17% 65%  
71 17% 48% Median
72 13% 32%  
73 9% 19%  
74 5% 10%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.3% 2% Last Result, Majority
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.8%  
59 1.4% 99.2%  
60 3% 98%  
61 6% 95%  
62 10% 88%  
63 13% 79% Last Result
64 16% 66%  
65 17% 50% Median
66 13% 33%  
67 10% 20%  
68 6% 11%  
69 3% 4%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 3% 98.7%  
61 7% 96%  
62 12% 89%  
63 17% 77%  
64 18% 60% Median
65 16% 42%  
66 12% 26%  
67 8% 15%  
68 5% 7% Last Result
69 2% 3%  
70 0.5% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 1.5% 99.6%  
59 4% 98%  
60 7% 95%  
61 11% 88%  
62 15% 77% Median
63 16% 62%  
64 14% 46%  
65 12% 32% Last Result
66 9% 20%  
67 6% 11%  
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.7% 1.0%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.5%  
54 4% 98%  
55 8% 94%  
56 13% 86%  
57 16% 73%  
58 15% 57% Median
59 14% 42%  
60 11% 28%  
61 8% 16%  
62 4% 9% Last Result
63 2% 4%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.4%  
52 4% 98%  
53 8% 94%  
54 12% 86%  
55 16% 74%  
56 17% 58% Median
57 15% 41%  
58 11% 25%  
59 7% 14%  
60 4% 7%  
61 2% 3% Last Result
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.4% 99.6%  
52 4% 98%  
53 7% 95% Last Result
54 11% 88%  
55 15% 77% Median
56 16% 62%  
57 16% 46%  
58 13% 30%  
59 9% 17%  
60 5% 8%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 1.3% 99.5%  
51 3% 98%  
52 6% 95%  
53 10% 88%  
54 14% 78% Last Result
55 17% 64%  
56 16% 47% Median
57 14% 31%  
58 10% 17%  
59 5% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.0%  
51 7% 96%  
52 13% 89%  
53 16% 77% Median
54 17% 60%  
55 15% 43%  
56 11% 28% Last Result
57 8% 17%  
58 5% 9%  
59 3% 4%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 4% 98%  
44 8% 93%  
45 13% 85%  
46 17% 72%  
47 17% 55% Median
48 15% 38%  
49 11% 23%  
50 7% 13%  
51 4% 6%  
52 2% 2% Last Result
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations