Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 27 May–3 June 2025

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.7% 16.6% 15.3–17.2% 15.0–17.3% 14.7–17.4% 14.2–17.5%
Vlaams Belang 13.8% 14.5% 13.1–14.9% 12.9–15.1% 12.6–15.2% 12.1–15.3%
Parti Socialiste 8.0% 9.5% 8.5–8.9% 8.4–8.9% 8.3–8.9% 8.1–8.9%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.0% 9.0% 8.2–9.7% 7.9–9.8% 7.7–9.9% 7.3–10.0%
Mouvement Réformateur 10.3% 9.0% 8.0–8.4% 7.9–8.4% 7.8–8.4% 7.6–8.4%
Vooruit 8.1% 8.3% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.1% 7.1–9.2% 6.7–9.2%
Les Engagés 6.8% 6.5% 5.6–6.0% 5.6–6.0% 5.5–6.0% 5.3–6.0%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 6.5% 5.6–5.9% 5.5–6.0% 5.5–6.0% 5.3–6.0%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.1% 5.5% 4.9–6.1% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.3%
Groen 4.6% 4.6% 4.0–5.1% 3.8–5.2% 3.7–5.3% 3.4–5.3%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 5.4% 3.8% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.4% 3.0–4.4% 2.7–4.5%
Ecolo 2.9% 3.3% 2.7–2.9% 2.6–2.9% 2.6–2.9% 2.5–2.9%
Chez Nous 0.9% 0.9% 0.7–0.9% 0.6–0.9% 0.6–1.0% 0.5–1.0%
DéFI 1.2% 0.9% 0.5–0.7% 0.5–0.8% 0.5–0.8% 0.4–0.8%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.4% 0.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24 25 24–27 23–28 22–29 21–30
Vlaams Belang 20 22 20–24 19–24 19–24 17–25
Parti Socialiste 16 18 17–19 17–20 16–20 15–21
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 11 13 11–15 10–15 10–15 10–17
Mouvement Réformateur 20 17 16–18 15–18 15–19 14–20
Vooruit 13 12 9–14 9–14 9–14 9–15
Les Engagés 14 11 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Parti du Travail de Belgique 8 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Partij van de Arbeid van België 7 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 5–11
Groen 6 6 4–6 3–6 3–6 3–8
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 7 3 2–4 2–4 2–6 2–7
Ecolo 3 4 3–6 3–6 2–7 2–7
Chez Nous 0 0 0 0 0 0
DéFI 1 0 0 0 0 0
Team Fouad Ahidar 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 2% 100%  
22 2% 98%  
23 5% 96%  
24 22% 91% Last Result
25 29% 69% Median
26 15% 40%  
27 17% 25%  
28 5% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.9% 0.9%  
31 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 1.5% 99.5%  
19 5% 98%  
20 22% 93% Last Result
21 16% 72%  
22 25% 55% Median
23 18% 30%  
24 10% 12%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.9%  
16 3% 98.8% Last Result
17 21% 95%  
18 38% 74% Median
19 27% 35%  
20 8% 8%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 9% 100%  
11 7% 91% Last Result
12 16% 84%  
13 39% 68% Median
14 14% 29%  
15 14% 16%  
16 1.0% 1.5%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 4% 98%  
16 10% 94%  
17 57% 83% Median
18 23% 26%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 15% 100%  
10 10% 85%  
11 8% 75%  
12 17% 66% Median
13 39% 49% Last Result
14 9% 10%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 23% 98%  
11 37% 75% Median
12 17% 38%  
13 12% 21%  
14 7% 9% Last Result
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.6% 100%  
10 28% 99.4%  
11 30% 72% Median
12 26% 41%  
13 13% 15%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 15% 100%  
6 11% 85%  
7 46% 74% Last Result, Median
8 24% 28%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.8% 1.4%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 99.9%  
4 23% 93%  
5 9% 70%  
6 59% 60% Last Result, Median
7 1.0% 2%  
8 0.4% 0.7%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 32% 100%  
3 33% 68% Median
4 30% 35%  
5 1.3% 5%  
6 2% 3%  
7 1.5% 1.5% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 27% 95% Last Result
4 37% 68% Median
5 20% 31%  
6 8% 11%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Chez Nous

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 90 84 100% 81–87 80–88 79–88 78–90
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 78 82 99.8% 79–85 78–86 77–86 76–88
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés 78 80 97% 77–83 76–83 75–84 74–86
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés 82 79 91% 76–82 75–82 74–83 73–85
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 76 50% 72–78 71–79 71–80 69–81
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 81 75 34% 71–77 71–78 70–79 68–80
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 76 72 10% 69–76 68–76 67–77 66–79
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 76 70 0.9% 67–73 66–74 65–75 64–76
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo 63 64 0% 61–67 60–68 59–68 58–70
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 63 0% 60–65 59–66 59–67 57–68
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 65 60 0% 56–62 55–63 55–64 53–65
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 62 58 0% 56–61 55–62 54–63 53–64
Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 53 58 0% 54–61 54–61 53–62 51–63
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés 54 54 0% 51–57 51–58 50–59 48–60
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo 61 54 0% 51–57 50–58 49–59 48–60
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 50 0% 47–53 46–54 46–54 44–56
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 52 44 0% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–50

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.8% 99.7%  
79 2% 98.9%  
80 4% 97%  
81 8% 92%  
82 12% 85%  
83 16% 73%  
84 17% 57% Median
85 16% 39%  
86 12% 24%  
87 7% 12%  
88 3% 5%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.8% Majority
77 2% 99.3%  
78 4% 97% Last Result
79 8% 93%  
80 12% 86%  
81 16% 74%  
82 19% 58% Median
83 16% 39%  
84 11% 23%  
85 7% 12%  
86 4% 6%  
87 1.5% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.8% 99.6%  
75 2% 98.8%  
76 5% 97% Majority
77 9% 92%  
78 14% 82% Last Result
79 17% 68% Median
80 17% 51%  
81 14% 35%  
82 10% 21%  
83 6% 11%  
84 3% 5%  
85 1.2% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.9% 99.5%  
74 2% 98.7%  
75 5% 96%  
76 10% 91% Majority
77 15% 81%  
78 16% 67% Median
79 16% 50%  
80 13% 34%  
81 10% 20%  
82 6% 11% Last Result
83 3% 5%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.8%  
70 1.4% 99.2%  
71 3% 98%  
72 6% 95%  
73 9% 89%  
74 13% 80%  
75 16% 67% Median
76 17% 50% Majority
77 14% 33%  
78 10% 19%  
79 5% 10%  
80 3% 4% Last Result
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 1.2% 99.4%  
70 3% 98%  
71 6% 95%  
72 9% 90%  
73 13% 80%  
74 16% 67% Median
75 17% 51%  
76 14% 34% Majority
77 10% 20%  
78 6% 10%  
79 3% 4%  
80 1.0% 1.5%  
81 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.0%  
68 3% 97%  
69 6% 94%  
70 10% 88%  
71 13% 78%  
72 16% 65%  
73 16% 49% Median
74 14% 33%  
75 10% 20%  
76 6% 10% Last Result, Majority
77 3% 5%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.9% 99.6%  
65 2% 98.7%  
66 4% 97%  
67 8% 92%  
68 13% 84%  
69 16% 71% Median
70 16% 55%  
71 15% 39%  
72 11% 24%  
73 7% 13%  
74 4% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.6% 0.9% Last Result, Majority
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 1.1% 99.5%  
59 3% 98%  
60 5% 96%  
61 9% 91%  
62 13% 82%  
63 16% 69% Last Result
64 16% 53% Median
65 14% 37%  
66 10% 23%  
67 7% 13%  
68 4% 6%  
69 1.5% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 4% 98%  
60 8% 94%  
61 15% 85%  
62 19% 71% Median
63 19% 52%  
64 15% 33%  
65 10% 19%  
66 5% 9%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 1.4% 99.3%  
55 3% 98%  
56 6% 95%  
57 9% 89%  
58 13% 80%  
59 15% 67%  
60 16% 51% Median
61 15% 35%  
62 11% 20%  
63 6% 10%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.1% 99.6%  
54 3% 98%  
55 5% 96%  
56 10% 91%  
57 16% 81%  
58 18% 66% Median
59 17% 48%  
60 14% 31%  
61 10% 17%  
62 4% 7% Last Result
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Vooruit – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.9%  
52 1.3% 99.4%  
53 3% 98% Last Result
54 6% 95%  
55 9% 89%  
56 13% 80%  
57 15% 68%  
58 16% 52% Median
59 14% 36%  
60 11% 21%  
61 6% 11%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.9% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 1.2% 99.4%  
50 3% 98%  
51 6% 95%  
52 11% 89%  
53 14% 78%  
54 16% 64% Last Result, Median
55 16% 48%  
56 14% 32%  
57 10% 18%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.2%  
50 4% 97%  
51 8% 93%  
52 13% 85%  
53 16% 72%  
54 17% 56% Median
55 15% 39%  
56 11% 24%  
57 7% 13%  
58 4% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.5% 99.5%  
46 4% 98%  
47 7% 94%  
48 10% 87%  
49 14% 77%  
50 17% 63% Median
51 18% 46%  
52 15% 28%  
53 8% 13%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.3% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 4% 97%  
42 10% 93%  
43 17% 84%  
44 18% 67% Median
45 17% 49%  
46 13% 31%  
47 9% 18%  
48 5% 9%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.0% 1.4%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations