Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 11–17 September 2024

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.7% 16.7% 14.9–15.8% 14.7–15.8% 14.5–15.8% 14.1–15.8%
Vlaams Belang 13.8% 14.6% 12.9–13.7% 12.7–13.7% 12.5–13.7% 12.1–13.7%
Mouvement Réformateur 10.3% 9.8% 8.8–9.2% 8.7–9.2% 8.6–9.2% 8.4–9.2%
Vooruit 8.1% 9.2% 8.3–9.9% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.1% 7.5–10.2%
Parti Socialiste 8.0% 8.2% 7.2–7.6% 7.1–7.6% 7.1–7.6% 6.9–7.6%
Les Engagés 6.8% 7.6% 6.6–7.0% 6.5–7.0% 6.4–7.0% 6.3–7.0%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.0% 7.0% 6.3–7.6% 6.1–7.7% 5.9–7.8% 5.6–7.9%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.1% 5.5% 4.9–6.1% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.3%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 5.2% 4.5–4.8% 4.4–4.8% 4.3–4.8% 4.2–4.8%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 5.4% 4.2% 3.6–4.7% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–4.9%
Groen 4.6% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.3–4.6% 3.2–4.7% 2.9–4.7%
Ecolo 2.9% 3.4% 2.7–3.0% 2.7–3.0% 2.6–3.0% 2.5–3.0%
DéFI 1.2% 1.2% 0.9–1.0% 0.8–1.0% 0.8–1.0% 0.7–1.0%
Chez Nous 0.9% 0.9% 0.7–0.9% 0.6–0.9% 0.6–1.0% 0.5–1.0%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24 26 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–30
Vlaams Belang 20 23 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26
Mouvement Réformateur 20 19 17–20 17–21 17–22 17–22
Vooruit 13 13 13–15 12–15 11–16 10–17
Parti Socialiste 16 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–18
Les Engagés 14 15 14–15 13–15 12–16 11–16
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 11 10 9–10 8–11 8–12 7–13
Partij van de Arbeid van België 7 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 5–11
Parti du Travail de Belgique 8 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 7 4 3–6 2–7 2–7 2–7
Groen 6 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 1–6
Ecolo 3 4 3–5 3–6 3–6 2–7
DéFI 1 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Chez Nous 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team Fouad Ahidar 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.7%  
23 3% 99.2%  
24 20% 96% Last Result
25 21% 76%  
26 22% 55% Median
27 15% 33%  
28 9% 18%  
29 5% 9%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.8% 100%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 10% 96% Last Result
21 12% 85%  
22 18% 74%  
23 31% 55% Median
24 18% 24%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.0% 1.1%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 15% 99.8%  
18 34% 85%  
19 28% 51% Median
20 13% 23% Last Result
21 6% 9%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.5%  
11 2% 98%  
12 5% 96%  
13 47% 91% Last Result, Median
14 30% 43%  
15 10% 14%  
16 3% 4%  
17 1.0% 1.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 7% 99.4%  
14 14% 92%  
15 29% 78% Median
16 22% 49% Last Result
17 23% 26%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.3%  
13 5% 97%  
14 41% 92% Last Result
15 46% 51% Median
16 4% 5%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.2% 99.9%  
7 0.6% 99.6%  
8 9% 99.0%  
9 7% 90%  
10 74% 83% Median
11 5% 9% Last Result
12 3% 4%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 11% 100%  
6 8% 89%  
7 49% 80% Last Result, Median
8 28% 32%  
9 2% 4%  
10 1.0% 2%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 12% 98% Last Result
9 44% 86% Median
10 38% 43%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 20% 94%  
4 53% 74% Median
5 8% 21%  
6 6% 13%  
7 7% 7% Last Result
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 0.8% 99.1%  
3 32% 98%  
4 33% 67% Median
5 10% 33%  
6 24% 24% Last Result
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 15% 99.4% Last Result
4 63% 85% Median
5 16% 22%  
6 4% 6%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 91% 91% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Chez Nous

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 90 84 100% 82–87 81–88 81–88 79–90
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 82 82 99.9% 80–85 79–86 78–87 77–89
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 78 79 95% 76–82 75–83 75–84 73–85
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo 78 78 88% 75–81 74–82 74–82 72–83
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 78 84% 75–80 74–81 74–82 72–84
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 81 76 61% 74–79 73–79 72–80 71–81
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 76 73 14% 70–76 69–77 69–78 68–79
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 76 70 0.7% 67–73 67–74 66–74 65–76
Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 63 0% 60–65 60–66 59–66 58–68
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Ecolo 63 62 0% 59–64 58–65 57–66 56–67
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 65 60 0% 58–63 57–64 56–64 55–66
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 62 58 0% 56–62 55–62 55–63 53–65
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 61 55 0% 53–58 52–59 51–60 50–62
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo 53 54 0% 51–56 50–57 49–58 48–59
Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 54 53 0% 51–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 52 0% 49–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 52 47 0% 45–50 44–50 43–51 42–53

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 1.4% 99.4%  
81 4% 98%  
82 11% 94%  
83 17% 83%  
84 18% 65% Median
85 17% 47%  
86 14% 29%  
87 9% 15%  
88 4% 7%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9% Majority
77 0.8% 99.6%  
78 2% 98.9%  
79 5% 97%  
80 10% 92%  
81 17% 82%  
82 20% 65% Last Result
83 17% 45% Median
84 12% 28%  
85 8% 16%  
86 5% 8%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 1.3% 99.3%  
75 3% 98%  
76 7% 95% Majority
77 11% 88%  
78 16% 77% Last Result
79 18% 61% Median
80 17% 43%  
81 12% 26%  
82 7% 14%  
83 4% 7%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.8% 1.1%  
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.7%  
73 1.5% 99.2%  
74 3% 98%  
75 7% 94%  
76 11% 88% Majority
77 16% 76% Median
78 19% 60% Last Result
79 17% 41%  
80 12% 24%  
81 7% 12%  
82 4% 5%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.5% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.4%  
74 4% 98%  
75 9% 93%  
76 15% 84% Majority
77 19% 69% Median
78 18% 50%  
79 13% 33%  
80 9% 19% Last Result
81 5% 10%  
82 3% 4%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.7%  
72 2% 99.0%  
73 5% 97%  
74 12% 91%  
75 19% 80%  
76 22% 61% Median, Majority
77 18% 40%  
78 11% 22%  
79 6% 10%  
80 3% 4%  
81 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 1.2% 99.5%  
69 3% 98%  
70 7% 95%  
71 13% 88%  
72 18% 75%  
73 18% 57%  
74 14% 39% Median
75 11% 24%  
76 7% 14% Last Result, Majority
77 4% 7%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.7% 1.1%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.9% 99.6%  
66 3% 98.7%  
67 7% 96%  
68 14% 88%  
69 18% 75% Median
70 18% 57%  
71 16% 39%  
72 12% 24%  
73 7% 12%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.4% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.7% Last Result, Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.7%  
59 3% 98.9%  
60 7% 96%  
61 15% 89%  
62 23% 75%  
63 24% 52% Median
64 15% 28%  
65 8% 13%  
66 4% 5%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 4% 97%  
59 9% 93%  
60 15% 84%  
61 18% 69% Median
62 18% 52%  
63 15% 34% Last Result
64 10% 19%  
65 6% 9%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.7% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 7% 97%  
58 13% 90%  
59 18% 77% Median
60 18% 59%  
61 16% 41%  
62 12% 25%  
63 7% 13%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 2% Last Result
66 0.6% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Mouvement Réformateur – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.5%  
55 5% 98%  
56 10% 93%  
57 16% 83%  
58 19% 67%  
59 16% 48% Median
60 13% 32%  
61 9% 19%  
62 5% 10% Last Result
63 3% 5%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.3%  
52 5% 97%  
53 11% 93%  
54 16% 82%  
55 18% 66%  
56 17% 48% Median
57 13% 31%  
58 9% 17%  
59 5% 9%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.0% 1.5% Last Result
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 4% 97%  
51 8% 93%  
52 13% 86% Median
53 19% 72% Last Result
54 19% 54%  
55 15% 34%  
56 10% 19%  
57 6% 9%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.8% 1.1%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 5% 97%  
51 10% 92%  
52 16% 82%  
53 20% 66% Median
54 20% 45% Last Result
55 14% 26%  
56 7% 12%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Parti Socialiste – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.9%  
49 7% 96%  
50 14% 89%  
51 21% 75% Median
52 21% 54%  
53 15% 32%  
54 9% 17%  
55 5% 8%  
56 2% 3% Last Result
57 0.7% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.3%  
44 5% 97%  
45 11% 93%  
46 19% 82%  
47 24% 62%  
48 18% 39% Median
49 11% 21%  
50 6% 11%  
51 3% 5%  
52 1.1% 2% Last Result
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations