Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 1–9 December 2025

Areas included: Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 16.7% 16.2% 14.3–15.2% 14.1–15.2% 13.9–15.2% 13.5–15.2%
Vlaams Belang 13.8% 15.3% 13.5–14.3% 13.3–14.3% 13.1–14.3% 12.7–14.4%
Parti Socialiste 8.0% 10.3% 9.3–9.7% 9.2–9.7% 9.1–9.7% 8.9–9.7%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 8.0% 8.7% 7.8–9.3% 7.6–9.4% 7.4–9.5% 7.0–9.6%
Mouvement Réformateur 10.3% 7.8% 6.9–7.2% 6.8–7.2% 6.7–7.3% 6.5–7.3%
Parti du Travail de Belgique 4.8% 7.6% 6.7–7.1% 6.6–7.1% 6.5–7.1% 6.3–7.1%
Vooruit 8.1% 7.1% 6.3–7.7% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–7.9%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.1% 6.4% 5.6–6.9% 5.4–7.0% 5.3–7.1% 4.9–7.1%
Les Engagés 6.8% 6.0% 5.1–5.5% 5.1–5.5% 5.0–5.5% 4.8–5.5%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 5.4% 4.4% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.0% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.1%
Groen 4.6% 4.4% 3.7–4.9% 3.6–5.0% 3.5–5.0% 3.2–5.1%
Ecolo 2.9% 3.0% 2.4–2.6% 2.4–2.6% 2.3–2.6% 2.2–2.6%
DéFI 1.2% 1.1% 0.8–0.9% 0.8–0.9% 0.8–1.0% 0.7–1.0%
Chez Nous 0.9% 0.9% 0.7–0.9% 0.6–0.9% 0.6–1.0% 0.5–1.0%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24 24 23–27 22–27 21–28 21–29
Vlaams Belang 20 23 21–25 21–26 20–26 19–28
Parti Socialiste 16 19 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 11 13 10–14 10–15 10–15 10–15
Mouvement Réformateur 20 14 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Parti du Travail de Belgique 8 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Vooruit 13 9 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Partij van de Arbeid van België 7 8 7–11 7–11 7–11 5–11
Les Engagés 14 11 10–11 10–12 10–12 9–13
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 7 4 3–7 3–7 2–7 2–7
Groen 6 5 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
Ecolo 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–6
DéFI 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Chez Nous 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team Fouad Ahidar 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9%  
22 5% 97%  
23 16% 92%  
24 31% 75% Last Result, Median
25 16% 44%  
26 10% 28%  
27 15% 18%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.8% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.8%  
20 3% 99.0% Last Result
21 6% 96%  
22 12% 90%  
23 28% 78% Median
24 31% 50%  
25 13% 19%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 2% 100%  
18 18% 98%  
19 47% 81% Median
20 21% 34%  
21 11% 12%  
22 1.2% 1.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 18% 100%  
11 12% 82% Last Result
12 16% 70%  
13 36% 54% Median
14 9% 18%  
15 9% 9%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Mouvement Réformateur

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.9%  
13 11% 98.8%  
14 40% 88% Median
15 32% 48%  
16 12% 16%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Parti du Travail de Belgique

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 4% 99.6%  
13 27% 96%  
14 43% 69% Median
15 19% 26%  
16 6% 7%  
17 1.1% 1.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 0.7% 99.8%  
8 5% 99.1%  
9 67% 94% Median
10 13% 27%  
11 7% 14%  
12 5% 7%  
13 2% 2% Last Result
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 1.4% 99.3%  
7 22% 98% Last Result
8 38% 76% Median
9 16% 38%  
10 9% 22%  
11 13% 13%  
12 0% 0%  

Les Engagés

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 26% 98%  
11 65% 72% Median
12 5% 7%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 19% 97%  
4 44% 78% Median
5 7% 33%  
6 8% 26%  
7 18% 19% Last Result
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.8%  
3 20% 99.6%  
4 24% 79%  
5 11% 55% Median
6 44% 45% Last Result
7 0.2% 0.5%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Ecolo

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 20% 100%  
3 53% 80% Last Result, Median
4 23% 27%  
5 2% 3%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

DéFI

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 75% 75% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Chez Nous

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chez Nous page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo 78 82 99.9% 79–85 78–86 78–87 76–88
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 90 79 93% 76–82 75–83 74–83 73–85
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés 78 76 65% 73–79 72–80 72–81 71–82
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 80 72 9% 69–75 69–76 68–77 67–78
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés 82 72 4% 69–75 68–75 67–76 66–77
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 81 71 2% 68–74 67–75 66–75 65–77
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 76 68 0.1% 65–71 64–72 64–73 62–74
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 76 67 0% 64–70 63–70 62–71 61–72
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 68 61 0% 59–64 58–65 57–66 56–67
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo 63 60 0% 57–63 56–63 56–64 54–65
Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo 53 59 0% 56–62 56–63 55–63 54–65
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 62 56 0% 53–59 52–60 51–60 50–62
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 65 56 0% 53–59 52–60 51–60 50–62
Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés 54 52 0% 49–54 48–55 48–56 47–57
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo 61 50 0% 47–53 46–54 46–55 45–56
Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 48 0% 45–51 45–51 44–52 43–53
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 52 42 0% 39–45 39–46 38–46 37–47

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9% Majority
77 1.3% 99.5%  
78 3% 98% Last Result
79 7% 95%  
80 13% 88%  
81 15% 75%  
82 15% 60% Median
83 15% 45%  
84 13% 30%  
85 9% 17%  
86 5% 8%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.7% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.6% 99.8%  
74 2% 99.2%  
75 4% 97%  
76 9% 93% Majority
77 14% 84%  
78 16% 70% Median
79 16% 54%  
80 15% 38%  
81 11% 23%  
82 7% 12%  
83 4% 6%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 1.3% 99.6%  
72 4% 98%  
73 6% 95%  
74 10% 88%  
75 14% 79%  
76 16% 65% Median, Majority
77 16% 49%  
78 14% 33% Last Result
79 10% 19%  
80 6% 10%  
81 3% 4%  
82 0.9% 1.3%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 1.2% 99.5%  
68 3% 98%  
69 7% 95%  
70 11% 88% Median
71 14% 78%  
72 16% 64%  
73 16% 49%  
74 14% 32%  
75 10% 18%  
76 5% 9% Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 0.8% 1.2%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.7% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 6% 97%  
69 8% 91%  
70 13% 83%  
71 16% 70% Median
72 16% 54%  
73 15% 37%  
74 12% 23%  
75 7% 11%  
76 3% 4% Majority
77 1.0% 1.4%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.8%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 4% 97%  
68 8% 93%  
69 13% 85%  
70 16% 73% Median
71 17% 57%  
72 15% 40%  
73 12% 25%  
74 8% 13%  
75 4% 6%  
76 1.3% 2% Majority
77 0.4% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.6% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.2%  
64 4% 98%  
65 8% 93%  
66 13% 85%  
67 15% 73% Median
68 16% 57%  
69 15% 42%  
70 12% 27%  
71 8% 15%  
72 4% 7%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.7% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 5% 97%  
64 8% 92%  
65 12% 84%  
66 16% 72% Median
67 17% 56%  
68 16% 39%  
69 13% 23%  
70 7% 11%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.9% 1.3%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.8% 99.8%  
57 3% 99.0%  
58 6% 96%  
59 10% 90%  
60 15% 80%  
61 17% 66% Median
62 16% 49%  
63 13% 33%  
64 10% 19%  
65 6% 10%  
66 3% 3%  
67 0.6% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
69 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 1.4% 99.4%  
56 4% 98%  
57 10% 94%  
58 15% 84%  
59 17% 70%  
60 17% 52% Median
61 14% 36%  
62 10% 22%  
63 6% 11% Last Result
64 3% 5%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Parti du Travail de Belgique – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100% Last Result
54 1.0% 99.8%  
55 4% 98.8%  
56 8% 95%  
57 12% 87%  
58 16% 75% Median
59 17% 59%  
60 16% 42%  
61 12% 26%  
62 8% 14%  
63 4% 6%  
64 1.5% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.3%  
52 4% 97%  
53 7% 93%  
54 12% 86%  
55 15% 74% Median
56 17% 59%  
57 16% 43%  
58 13% 26%  
59 8% 13%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.7% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.1%  
52 5% 97%  
53 10% 92%  
54 13% 82% Median
55 16% 69%  
56 17% 53%  
57 14% 36%  
58 10% 21%  
59 6% 12%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Les Engagés

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 1.1% 99.8%  
48 4% 98.7%  
49 8% 95%  
50 12% 87%  
51 18% 75%  
52 20% 57% Median
53 16% 37%  
54 11% 20% Last Result
55 6% 9%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.9% 1.3%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Ecolo

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.3% 99.6%  
46 3% 98%  
47 7% 95%  
48 13% 87%  
49 16% 74%  
50 16% 58% Median
51 15% 42%  
52 12% 28%  
53 8% 15%  
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.7% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Parti Socialiste – Mouvement Réformateur – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 1.0% 99.8%  
44 4% 98.8%  
45 9% 95%  
46 15% 86% Median
47 18% 71%  
48 17% 53%  
49 14% 35%  
50 11% 21%  
51 7% 11%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.9% 1.4%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Mouvement Réformateur – Les Engagés – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 3% 99.1%  
39 7% 96%  
40 12% 89%  
41 16% 77%  
42 18% 62% Median
43 15% 44%  
44 12% 28%  
45 9% 16%  
46 5% 7%  
47 1.5% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations