Les Engagés
Voting Intentions
Last result: 3.7% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.3% | 4.1–4.4% | 4.0–4.5% | 3.9–4.5% | 3.7–4.5% |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
6.2% | 5.3–5.6% | 5.2–5.6% | 5.1–5.6% | 5.0–5.6% |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6.1% | 5.3–5.6% | 5.2–5.6% | 5.1–5.6% | 4.9–5.6% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
4.7% | 3.9–4.2% | 3.8–4.2% | 3.8–4.2% | 3.6–4.2% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.8% | 4.9–5.2% | 4.8–5.2% | 4.7–5.2% | 4.6–5.2% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
4.4% | 3.7–4.0% | 3.6–4.0% | 3.6–4.0% | 3.4–4.0% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.8% | 4.1–4.4% | 4.0–4.4% | 3.9–4.4% | 3.8–4.4% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
3.7% | 2.8–3.2% | 2.7–3.2% | 2.6–3.2% | 2.4–3.2% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.7% | 3.9–4.3% | 3.9–4.3% | 3.8–4.3% | 3.7–4.3% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.5% | 2.8–3.1% | 2.8–3.1% | 2.7–3.1% | 2.6–3.1% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.8% | 3.1–3.4% | 3.0–3.4% | 3.0–3.4% | 2.8–3.4% |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
3.1% | 2.2–2.6% | 2.2–2.6% | 2.1–2.6% | 1.9–2.6% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.3% | 2.6–2.9% | 2.6–2.9% | 2.5–2.9% | 2.4–2.9% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.1% | 2.5–2.7% | 2.4–2.7% | 2.4–2.7% | 2.3–2.7% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.0% | 2.4–2.6% | 2.3–2.6% | 2.3–2.6% | 2.2–2.6% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.3% | 2.6–2.9% | 2.6–2.9% | 2.5–2.9% | 2.4–2.9% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.8% | 2.2–2.5% | 2.2–2.5% | 2.1–2.5% | 2.0–2.5% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.3% | 2.7–2.9% | 2.6–3.0% | 2.5–3.0% | 2.4–3.0% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.7% | 3.0–3.3% | 3.0–3.3% | 2.9–3.3% | 2.8–3.3% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.0% | 2.3–2.6% | 2.3–2.6% | 2.2–2.6% | 2.1–2.6% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.6% | 2.9–3.1% | 2.8–3.1% | 2.7–3.1% | 2.6–3.1% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.2% | 2.6–2.8% | 2.5–2.8% | 2.5–2.8% | 2.3–2.8% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
0.0% | 1.4–1.7% | 1.3–1.8% | 1.2–1.8% | 1.1–1.8% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.9% | 2.2–2.5% | 2.2–2.5% | 2.1–2.5% | 2.0–2.5% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.6% | 2.0–2.2% | 2.0–2.2% | 1.9–2.2% | 1.8–2.2% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.1% | 2.5–2.7% | 2.4–2.7% | 2.4–2.7% | 2.2–2.7% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.0% | 2.4–2.6% | 2.3–2.6% | 2.2–2.6% | 2.1–2.6% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Les Engagés.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 100% | 99.9% | Last Result, Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.2% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 5 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 11 | 8–12 | 7–13 | 6–13 | 5–14 |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
11 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
5 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–9 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–8 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
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| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 1–5 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
2 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 1–5 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 2–5 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Les Engagés.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 6 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 5% | 96% | |
| 8 | 10% | 92% | |
| 9 | 17% | 81% | |
| 10 | 13% | 64% | |
| 11 | 22% | 51% | Median |
| 12 | 22% | 29% | |
| 13 | 6% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |