Mouvement Réformateur
Voting Intentions
Last result: 7.6% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 7.6% | 7.3–7.8% | 7.2–7.8% | 7.1–7.8% | 6.9–7.8% |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
9.0% | 8.0–8.4% | 7.9–8.4% | 7.8–8.4% | 7.6–8.4% |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.7% | 7.7–8.1% | 7.6–8.1% | 7.5–8.1% | 7.3–8.1% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
8.1% | 7.1–7.5% | 7.1–7.5% | 7.0–7.5% | 6.8–7.5% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.1% | 7.2–7.5% | 7.1–7.5% | 7.0–7.5% | 6.8–7.5% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
7.5% | 6.5–6.9% | 6.4–6.9% | 6.3–6.9% | 6.2–6.9% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.7% | 6.7–7.1% | 6.6–7.1% | 6.5–7.1% | 6.4–7.1% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
7.8% | 6.4–7.0% | 6.3–7.0% | 6.2–7.0% | 5.9–7.0% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.7% | 6.7–7.1% | 6.6–7.1% | 6.6–7.1% | 6.4–7.1% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.5% | 6.6–7.0% | 6.5–7.0% | 6.4–7.0% | 6.3–7.0% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.2% | 6.2–6.6% | 6.2–6.6% | 6.1–6.6% | 5.9–6.6% |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
7.3% | 6.1–6.5% | 5.9–6.6% | 5.8–6.6% | 5.6–6.6% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.8% | 6.8–7.2% | 6.7–7.2% | 6.6–7.2% | 6.5–7.2% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.3% | 7.4–7.7% | 7.3–7.8% | 7.2–7.8% | 7.0–7.8% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.6% | 6.6–7.0% | 6.5–7.0% | 6.4–7.0% | 6.3–7.0% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.7% | 6.7–7.1% | 6.6–7.1% | 6.5–7.1% | 6.4–7.1% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.1% | 7.1–7.5% | 7.0–7.5% | 6.9–7.5% | 6.8–7.5% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.6% | 6.6–7.0% | 6.5–7.0% | 6.5–7.0% | 6.3–7.0% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.1% | 6.2–6.5% | 6.1–6.5% | 6.0–6.5% | 5.8–6.6% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.4% | 6.5–6.8% | 6.4–6.8% | 6.3–6.8% | 6.1–6.9% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.4% | 6.5–6.8% | 6.4–6.9% | 6.3–6.9% | 6.1–6.9% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6.9% | 6.0–6.4% | 5.9–6.4% | 5.8–6.4% | 5.7–6.4% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
8.5% | 6.7–7.4% | 6.5–7.4% | 6.4–7.4% | 6.0–7.5% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.6% | 6.6–7.0% | 6.5–7.0% | 6.5–7.0% | 6.3–7.0% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.3% | 6.4–6.8% | 6.3–6.8% | 6.2–6.8% | 6.0–6.8% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7.5% | 6.6–6.9% | 6.5–6.9% | 6.4–6.9% | 6.2–6.9% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8.2% | 7.2–7.6% | 7.1–7.6% | 7.0–7.6% | 6.8–7.6% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Mouvement Réformateur.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 38% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 100% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 8.5–9.5% | 100% | 0% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 55% | 0% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.2% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 14 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
18 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
16 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
14 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–17 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
14 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
|||||
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
14 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–17 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
17 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
17 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Mouvement Réformateur.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 15 | 16% | 97% | |
| 16 | 17% | 82% | |
| 17 | 14% | 65% | |
| 18 | 31% | 51% | Median |
| 19 | 18% | 21% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |