Partij van de Arbeid van België
Voting Intentions
Last result: 3.3% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.8% | 5.1–7.5% | 5.0–7.7% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.6–7.9% |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
5.7% | 5.1–6.3% | 4.9–6.4% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.5–6.5% |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.5% | 5.0–5.9% | 4.9–5.9% | 4.8–6.0% | 4.5–6.0% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
7.5% | 6.8–8.1% | 6.6–8.3% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.0–8.4% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.9% | 5.2–6.4% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–6.7% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
6.7% | 6.0–7.3% | 5.8–7.4% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.3–7.5% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6.0% | 5.3–6.6% | 5.1–6.7% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.6–6.8% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
5.5% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.2–6.4% | 3.8–6.5% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.9% | 5.2–6.4% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–6.7% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6.4% | 5.6–6.9% | 5.4–7.1% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.0–7.2% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.9% | 4.3–5.4% | 4.1–5.5% | 4.0–5.6% | 3.7–5.7% |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
9.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
3.5% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.4–4.4% | 2.1–4.4% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.6% | 4.0–5.1% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.4–5.3% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.4% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.5–6.0% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.1–6.1% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.3% | 4.6–5.8% | 4.4–5.9% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.0–6.0% |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.5% | 4.8–6.1% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.3% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.5% | 4.8–6.0% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.3% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.8% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.4% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.5% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.8% | 4.2–5.3% | 4.0–5.4% | 3.9–5.5% | 3.6–5.5% |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.0% | 4.4–5.5% | 4.2–5.6% | 4.1–5.7% | 3.8–5.8% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.1% | 3.5–4.5% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.2–4.7% | 2.9–4.7% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.7% | 3.2–4.2% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.4% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.7% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.5% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.1% | 3.6–5.1% | 3.3–5.2% |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.7% | 5.0–6.3% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.5% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.2% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.2–5.9% | 3.9–5.9% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.8% | 3.3–4.3% | 3.1–4.4% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.5% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partij van de Arbeid van België.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 32% | 99.6% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 40% | 68% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 19% | 27% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 17% | 8% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 3% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 3 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 8 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–13 | 5–13 |
| 28–31 May 2024 | Cluster17 RTL TVi |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 14–20 May 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
10 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–13 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–13 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 6–11 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS De Standaard and VRT |
8 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
3 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 | 0–8 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 1–7 | 1–8 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–7 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 4–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
8 | 7–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 1–7 | 1–7 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partij van de Arbeid van België.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 98% | |
| 7 | 8% | 95% | |
| 8 | 52% | 87% | Median |
| 9 | 15% | 36% | |
| 10 | 11% | 20% | |
| 11 | 4% | 9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 5% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |