Opinion Poll by Алфа рисърч, 18–24 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0.0% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Възраждане (ESN) 0.0% 15.4% 14.0–16.9% 13.6–17.4% 13.3–17.8% 12.7–18.5%
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0.0% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Да, България! (EPP) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Величие (*) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Синя България (ECR) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Демократична България (EPP) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Продължаваме промяната (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Алианс за права и свободи (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
БСП – обединена левица (S&D) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Има такъв народ (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Да, България! (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Величие (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Синя България (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Демократична България (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 64% 98% Median
6 33% 33%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Възраждане (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 87% 99.7% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 62% 99.8% Median
3 37% 37%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Алианс за права и свободи (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Алианс за права и свободи (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 87% 88% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

БСП – обединена левица (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП – обединена левица (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 41% 81% Median
2 40% 40%  
3 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 49% 86% Median
2 37% 37%  
3 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 58% 62% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Да, България! (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 71% 71% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Величие (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Морал, Единство, Чест (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Синя България (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Синя България (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Демократична България (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Възраждане (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4

Възраждане (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 87% 99.7% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations